Hey Folks, The NWS is progging a tropical system to develop in the Caribbean next week. Here are the details!
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 15 OCT THRU 17 OCT 1997
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER..NCEP..NWS..WASHINGTON DC
1:50 PM EDT SUN 12 OCT 1997
MODELS MRF...MRFX...ECMWF...NAVY NOGAPS AND NOW UKMET ALL AGAIN INSIST ON TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SWRN CARRIBEAN. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH RELATIVE POSITIONING WITH THE MRF SLOWER TODAY WHILE MRFX IS FASTER WITH ITS ATTEMPT TO BRING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SRN BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. MRF/MRFX AND NOGAPS HAVE HAD A GOOD NUMBER OF FALSE ALARMS WITH THEIR OVER DEVELOPMENT OF WEST ATLC (CARRIBEAN AND GLFMEX) TROPICALS RECENTLY AND WE ARE STILL SKEPTICAL. HOWEVER THE ADDITION OF ECMWF AND UKMET ALONG WITH THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODELS LEADS US TO THE SUGGESTION THAT SOME SYSTEM MAY FORM HERE NEXT WEEK AND MANUAL PROGS REFLECT THIS AGAIN.
ROSENSTEIN/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
We shall see!
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