HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 1997
NATURE IS PUTTING ON QUITE A SHOW. LINDA RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED
WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND STRONG OUTER RAINBANDS.
CONVENTIONAL DVORAK OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS REACHED A PEAK 3-HOUR
AVERAGE OF 7.8 IN THE PERIOD ENDING AT 0430Z...AND THE 3-HOUR
AVERAGE ENDING AT 06Z WAS 7.7. THE 06Z CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 7.5 AND 8.0...RESPECTIVELY. THESE NUMBERS GIVE AN
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 160 TO 165 KT A FEW HOURS AGO.
THIS
MAKES LINDA BY FAR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON
RECORD ...ECLIPSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 140 KT...MOST RECENTLY
IN GUILLERMO LAST MONTH. IT ALSO MAKES LINDA ONE OF THE STRONGEST
HURRICANES ON RECORD IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. CLOUD TOPS WARMED
A LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE PATTERN OF COLDEST
TOPS HAS BECOME STRETCHED A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 160 KT.
THE HURRICANE TRACK APPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES
ABOUT AN AVERAGE HEADING OF 320/8 KT. FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...THE AVN MAINTAINS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
AND MOST AVN-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS LINDA ON A WNW TO NW TRACK.
LATER...A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN A GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF A THEN MUCH-WEAKENED
LINDA. IN FACT...NOGAPS AND LBAR SHOW SOME ACCELERATION AND SUGGEST
POTENTIAL RECURVATURE...WITH BOTH LOCATED NEAR 30N 120W IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGEST STORM ON RECORD...EXCEPTIONALLY
WARM WATERS AHEAD...AND AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY OF RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION COULD RESULT IN LINDA
EVENTUALLY BRINGING TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS UNUSUALLY FAR
TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTED TRACK.
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