Through my literature search on this topic I have found various predictions on the ramifications of climate change affecting basic resources in Africa. These predictions are not necessarily consistent with each other and are sometimes unrelated altogether.
Most resources seem to predict that heavier rainfall will be more common and damaging than the traditional threat of drought on food production with climate change. Although unsustainable, slash and burn agriculture is the primary source for food production in many African regions. Heavy rainfall would effectively undermine this practice as burning would be far more difficult and erosion would wash much of the shallow arable soil away. Also, a specific prediction based on data from Congo basin suggests that the ratio of precipitation to evapo-transpiration will be out of balance in favor of precipitation (Wilkie et al, 1999, pg.326). These conditions will likely cause increased flooding and subsequent agricultural loss and potentially polluted water supplies.
Several of the studies that I have looked at also refer to historical examples of heavy rainfall causing agricultural loss and famines. One study in particular addresses the West African famine of 1953-1954 that was caused by increased rainfall and monsoons. A similar situation is quite likely if temperatures and rainfall do increase according to the author (Grolle, GeoJournal, 1997). The desperate migration caused by such famines further intensifies the agricultural loss, as the affected people are forced to strip the natural resources across the land as they move. Without basic vegetation, there is nothing to hold the soil and it will likely erode with the heavy rainfall.
Current objectives for project:
-I will attempt to link some of the studies and identify common findings and data.
-Focus further on water resources -- of which I have found very little.
-Research and document possible alternatives to slash and burn agriculture for areas where it is the primary source of production.
I welcome anyone's comments, suggestions, or intense criticism!!
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