draft 2: Agricultural Implications of Global Climate Change

This topic submitted by Bradley Martin and Christina Chebo ( bhigginsmartin@yahoo.com ) on 2/14/02 .

The following is a listing of our rational for choosing some of the articles that we did.

Daily, Gretchen C. and Paul R. Ehrlich. ñAn exploratory Model of the Impact of Rapid Climate Change on the World Food Situation.î Proceedings: Biological Sciences, Volume 231, Issue 1302 (September
1990), 232-244.

This article explains one particular computer model in order to discuss the effects of climate change on global agriculture and the human population. In several scenarios, the authors examine the possible consequences of absolute global food defecits in terms of death toll, which will disproportionatey afffect the poorer, developing countries. They aslo briefly examine the relationship between food production and distribution.

Jones, J.W. and J.W. Hansen, F.S. Royce, C.D. Messina. ñPotential Benefits of Climate Forecasting to Agriculture.î Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Volume 82 (2000), 169-184.

J.W. Jones, et al discuss the need for short and long term climate forecasting to maximize the benefits of agricultural growth. Assessing climate change can reduce unwanted impacts and take advantage of expected favorable climates. The benefits of forecasting vary considerably. They can benefit physical, biological, economic, social, and political factors. The basis of this study was the effect that El NINO had on the Southeast USA in comparison with the Pampas region of Argentina.

Ruttan, Vernon W. ñThe Transition to Agricultural Sustainability.î Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 96, Issue 11 5960-5967.

This article examines the conditions that could potentially lead to sustainable growth in agriculture in the 21st Century. They also discuss the consequences if such changes fail to occur, mainly in the context of institutional rather than resource constraints. The author focuses on the negative impacts of anthropogenic environmental degredation on regional food production and discusses how these factors might influence poorer, developing nations.

Smit, Barry and Cai Yunlong. ñClimate Change and Agriculture in China.î Global Environmental Change, Volume 6 (1996), 205-214.

The Smit and Yunlong article highlights the implications of global climate change for the nation of China. Given the large geographic size, immense population, and limits on arable land, China's interest in the possibility of future climate change is great. The article uses an interdisciplinary approach to highlighteing some of the past climatic events in the history of china and how these events have shaped current agricultural events. Further, geographic studies of ten regions in China yield data about the localized impacts of climate change.

Tilman, David. ñGlobal Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Expansion: The Need for Sustainable and Efficient Practices.î Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
Volume 96, Issue 11 (May 25, 1999), 5995-6000.

This article discusses the negative environmental impacts of past and present agriculatural methods ("modern" agriculture). His argument is based on the projected doubling of the world demand for grain production within the next fifty years and also on projections of population increases over that tme period. He proposes several technical approaches to the reduction of ecological impact, but ultimately calls for institutional change in the direction of sustainablity

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