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This topic submitted by on 4/26/02.

The Agricultural Implications of Global Climate Change

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The following material is a proposal for scientific research into the agricultural implications of global climate change (in particular global warming). Using previously compiled data from a host of various sources, we will examine some of the predicted changes in agricultural systems, those peoples most likely to be affected by change, and some of the proposed means of adapting to/alleviating negative consequences of change.

Included within this proposal is a short synopsis of relevant background information regarding the agricultural implications of climate change. This information is meant to provide a backdrop for a synthesis of past studies. Further, a general description of our research methodology and timeline is included. The proposal is concluded with a listing of our working bibliography and principal web sites from which we will obtain data.
INTRODUCTION

The last few decades of scientific research and inquiry has revealed an increase in global temperatures. Studies indicate a rise in temperature in the range of .5-.7 degrees C in the last one hundred years. Though a definitive causal factor (or factors) is a point of debate among scientific and political circles, the reports of rising temperatures is uncontestable.

Click here for a Quicktime movie of temperature changes starting in the early twentieth century and finishing at the close of the twenty-first century.

A further point of debate is the implications of change on our planet's natural and human systems. The early Malthusian-esque forecasts of impending doom have been abandoned for a more rational approach to examining implications and responses to rising temperatures.
Being that climate change will affect both natural and human systems, it is important to study the effects of change at te junction where these two systems intimately meet, agriculture.

We intend to answer three primary questions as a result of our research. 1.) What major changes will most drastically effect the current agricultural system? 2.) Who will be affected by negative changes in the agricultural system? 3.) What measures, if any, can be applied to adapt and/or alleviate the negative consequences of agricultural change?

HYPOTHESIS

1. Major Climatic Changes:

a. Rising sea level decreases coastal arable land.ÊÊ
b. Shifting rainfall patterns. This effect will change the growing locations of various crops.
c. Shifting temperature ranges. Changes in length of growing seasons.

2. Reactions in the Developing world

a. Increased reliance on developed countries.
b. Negative environmental consequences of increased pesticide use (affects human health as well).

3. Preparedness

a. Money for research. Technological vs. Traditional farming methods (genetics, sustainability, and the green revolution).
b. International and domestic policy changes to protect small farmers interest on the global market.

RELEVANCE

It is our intention to examine the key issues surrounding the human agriculture system. Of the 80,000 potentially edible plants on the Earth, humans rely on only 30 species of plants for 95% of our nutrition. A mere 8 crops supply 75% of our diet. (Biosphere 2000) Agricultural production per capita has seen an average increase of 2.25 % in the last fifty years. This increase in productivity is largely a result of the implementation of agricultural technologies heralded by the "green revolution." It is also based on the fact that, during this period, net agricultural productivity grew faster than population. Since 1990, though, per capita food production in developing countries has consistently declined. Also, virtually one half of the world's food production occurs in countries with agricultural growth rates of less than 2.25%. (Boonekamp 2000) The U.S. Census Bureau has projected that the global population will reach 9.35 billion by the year 2050.

In addition, this increase will occur primarily in developing nations whose populations are also expected to realize higher life expectancies over the same time period. (Foster and Leathers 1999) In light of these and other startling projections and within the context of global climate change, some scientists, for the first time in history, have begun to discuss the potential for absolute global food shortage.

The advent of global warming, in particular, will have major affects on agricultural productivity in the next fifty years. As production increases to accommodate a growing population, so do emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides increase. Global warming will manifest in numerous ways and probably have a more dramatic affect on regional rather than global crop yields. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will affect the kinds of crops that can grow in a particular place. Some areas, such as coastal regions, will no longer be suited for agriculture due to salt-water intrusion into freshwater aquifers (preventing irrigation) or flooding of prime agricultural land. However, other regions may experience a growth in productivity due to global warming; such regions may see a longer growing season, and rising levels of carbon dioxide tend to increase the efficiency of photosynthesis, thus accelerating plant growth. Wheat, rice and soybeans are especially responsive to higher levels of CO2. However, higher average temperatures are also correlated with higher incidences of insect reproduction and disease. (Johnson 1991) These changes may result in an increased use of pesticide and herbicide use, which has serious implications for the health of natural systems, including humans of course. Higher global temperatures could also result in a dramatic loss of biodiversity, due to pole-ward and altitudinal shifts in species' ranges.

This diagram illustrates some of the effects global warming will have on agriculture.

There is much evidence to suggest that global warming would not adversely affect agricultural productivity in the United States; our country has the financial resources to invest in research programs and technologies that could help its producers adapt to changes. Genetic engineering, for example, could be used to develop crops that would flourish in any climate. Even poorer farmers could adjust planting dates, crop varieties, and use more chemicals. However, those with the least resources are the most vulnerable to the effects of global climate change; unfortunately, they are also the most likely to be adversely affected by population growth, resource depletion and other forms of environmental degradation. Farmers of developing nations, subject to the above conditions, would never be able to compete in the global market in the face of agricultural subsidies given to their counterparts in industrialized nations. (Johnson 1991)

The agricultural policies of industrialized nations are designed to diminish the economic gap between its farmers and the rest of its population. In general, trade policies in these nations tend to favor liberalization, but such is not the case with agricultural trade. Industrialized nation's governments provide export subsidies to farmers and place import restrictions on food products in order to increase their producers' profitability in the World Market. These nations justify their interference in the global market on the basis that agricultural trade has such a dramatic impact on domestic policies and programs. However, these policies prevent agricultural products from being produced at the lowest possible cost and demonstrate a lack of regard for the producers of other nations, namely those of developing nations. Industrialized nations encourage their farmers to overproduce and to use the international market for further profit. Developing nations, on the other hand, often exploit their farmers. They levy export taxes on food products in order to alleviate foreign debts, and they force food prices down to accommodate urban consumers. (Thompson 1994)

One attempt to reduce the disparity between industrial and developing nations as far as agriculture has been the implementation of food aid programs. Grain Insurance, for example, was designed to minimize yearly variations in food production in developing nations. It aimed to establish a consistent supply of grain to the poorest of the poor, or a sense of food security. (Boonekamp 2000) However, this program and others centered around aid in no way present long-term solutions to a nation's agricultural, economic or developmental problems. Government protection of farmers could be one answer; it has proven to raise a nation's per capita income, which is linked with better health care, education, and a decrease in population. (Johnson 1991) Developing nations also need capital for research into climate change, resource protection, and agricultural productivity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

To examine the agricultural implications of climate change, we will compile an extensive database of primary and secondary literature regarding agriculture and future change. We hope to conduct ourselves in a multidisciplinary fashion, as agriculture touches upon economic, social, ethical, and ecological issues. The data we collect will represent a host of different implications for future agriculture given a global warming scenario. Though we did not compile correlative data, the information contained herein is a synthesis of previously conducted research.Ê

DATA

This graph illustrates percentage changes in precipitation from 1900 to 1995.

The following climate maps exhibit the change in temperature and precipitation for the next 80 years. This data was obtained from an IPCC climate modeling program available at their website. Using the program we inputed the varibles for the amount of average millimeters per day and mean temperature in C for precipitation and temperature respectively.

Here are the projections for future precipitation (mm/day) in comparison for data from 1961-1990.