A further point of debate is the implications of change on our planet's natural and human systems. The early Malthusian-esque forecasts of impending doom have been abandoned for a more rational approach to examining implications and responses to rising temperatures.
Being that climate change will affect both natural and human systems, it is important to study the effects of change at the junction where these two systems intimately meet, agriculture.
We intend to answer three primary questions as a result of our research. 1.) What major changes will most drastically effect the current agricultural system? 2.) Who will be affected by negative changes in the agricultural system? 3.) What measures, if any, can be applied to adapt and/or alleviate the negative consequences of agricultural change?
HYPOTHESIS
1. Major Climatic Changes:
a. Rising sea level decreases coastal arable land. The coastal land also serves as a major population center throughout the globe.ÊÊ
b. Shifting rainfall patterns. This effect will change the growing locations of various crops.
c. Shifting temperature ranges. Changes in length of growing seasons.
2. Reactions in the Developing world
a. Increased reliance on developed countries.
b. Negative environmental consequences of increased pesticide use (affects human health as well).
3. Preparedness
a. Money for research. Technological vs. Traditional farming methods (genetics, sustainability, and the green revolution).
b. International and domestic policy changes to protect small farmers interest on the global market.
RELEVANCE
It is our intention to examine the key issues surrounding the human agriculture system. Of the 80,000 potentially edible plants on the Earth, humans rely on only 30 species of plants for 95% of our nutrition. A mere 8 crops supply 75% of our diet. (Biosphere 2000) Agricultural production per capita has seen an average increase of 2.25 % in the last fifty years. This increase in productivity is largely a result of the implementation of agricultural technologies heralded by the "green revolution." It is also based on the fact that, during this period, net agricultural productivity grew faster than population. Since 1990, though, per capita food production in developing countries has consistently declined. Also, virtually one half of the world's food production occurs in countries with agricultural growth rates of less than 2.25%. (Boonekamp 2000) The U.S. Census Bureau has projected that the global population will reach 9.35 billion by the year 2050.
The advent of global warming, in particular, will have major affects on agricultural productivity in the next fifty years. As production increases to accommodate a growing population, so do emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides increase. Global warming will manifest in numerous ways and probably have a more dramatic affect on regional rather than global crop yields. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will affect the kinds of crops that can grow in a particular place. Some areas, such as coastal regions, will no longer be suited for agriculture due to salt-water intrusion into freshwater aquifers (preventing irrigation) or flooding of prime agricultural land. However, other regions may experience a growth in productivity due to global warming; such regions may see a longer growing season, and rising levels of carbon dioxide tend to increase the efficiency of photosynthesis, thus accelerating plant growth. Wheat, rice and soybeans are especially responsive to higher levels of CO2. However, higher average temperatures are also correlated with higher incidences of insect reproduction and disease. (Johnson 1991) These changes may result in an increased use of pesticide and herbicide use, which has serious implications for the health of natural systems, including humans of course.
This diagram illustrates some of the effects global warming will have on agriculture.
The agricultural policies of industrialized nations are designed to diminish the economic gap between its farmers and the rest of its population. In general, trade policies in these nations tend to favor liberalization, but such is not the case with agricultural trade. Industrialized nation's governments provide export subsidies to farmers and place import restrictions on food products in order to increase their producers' profitability in the World Market. These nations justify their interference in the global market on the basis that agricultural trade has such a dramatic impact on domestic policies and programs. However, these policies prevent agricultural products from being produced at the lowest possible cost and demonstrate a lack of regard for the producers of other nations, namely those of developing nations. Industrialized nations encourage their farmers to overproduce and to use the international market for further profit. Developing nations, on the other hand, often exploit their farmers. They levy export taxes on food products in order to alleviate foreign debts, and they force food prices down to accommodate urban consumers. (Thompson 1994)
One attempt to reduce the disparity between industrial and developing nations as far as agriculture has been the implementation of food aid programs. Grain Insurance, for example, was designed to minimize yearly variations in food production in developing nations. It aimed to establish a consistent supply of grain to the poorest of the poor, or a sense of food security. (Boonekamp 2000) However, this program and others centered around aid in no way present long-term solutions to a nation's agricultural, economic or developmental problems. Government protection of farmers could be one answer; it has proven to raise a nation's per capita income, which is linked with better health care, education, and a decrease in population. (Johnson 1991) Developing nations also need capital for research into climate change, resource protection, and agricultural productivity.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
To examine the agricultural implications of climate change, we will compile an extensive database of primary and secondary literature regarding agriculture and future change. We hope to conduct ourselves in a multidisciplinary fashion, as agriculture touches upon economic, social, ethical, and ecological issues. Upon completion of thedatabase, we will synthesize the existing information to formulate an assessment of the agricultural implications of global climate change.
GRAPHS AND PERTINENT DATA
1. Agriculture effects the amounts of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere.
2. Predicted future emissions of greenhouse gases over the course of the next one hundred years.
3. Globaldietary patterns:What are people eating around the world?
4. The developing world receives the majority offood aid distributed around the globe.
5. Developed and developing nations alike depend onpopulation growththrough the year 2010.
7. The question remains whether or not developing nations will be able to avert food shortages after climatic change affects their current food production capability.
8. The economic role of agriculture is likely to increase from current levels as global climate change affects the planet.
9. The El Nino weather events are also likely to be affected by global climate change. Changes in the seasonal pattern of El Nino events can disrupt both summer and winter growing seasons.
10. Those countries with large rural populations are likely to be affected by climatic change
ANTICIPATED TIMELINE
Week 2-7:Compile Research Data
Week 8: Post Project Proposal
Week 9: Incorporate Class Criticisms into Proposal; More Research
Week 10: Focus: Research Question One (What?)
Week 11: Focus: Research Question Two (Who?)
Week 12: Focus: Research Question Three (How to Fix It?)
Week 13: Class Presentation; Synthesize Findings
Week 14: Re-Examine Findings
Week 15: Present Findings to Class; Submit Final Project Report
RELEVANT WEBSITES
1. Globalchange.gov
2. Globalchange.org
3.U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization
4.The U.S. Food and Drug Administration
5.The United Nations
6.N.A.S.A.
7.The U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program
WORKING BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Boonekamp, Loek et al. OECD Agricultural Outlook 2000-2005. New York: OECD, 2000.
This source makes projections for agricultural markets both in different nations and globally over the next five years. It discusses some chemical and technological aspects of agricultural production, including genetic modification, herbicides and pesticides, and irrigation techniques. It also discusses current U.S. agricultural trade policy, namely import restrictions and export subsidies, and potential changes in such policies that might improve relations in the global food market.
2. Chen, Chi-Chung, and Bruce A. McCarl. "Pesticide Use as Influenced by Climate: A Statistical Investigation." Published by: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/agriculture/working-papers.html
This source discusses the effects of Climate Change on agricultural herbicide and pesticide use in the U.S. from 1991 to 1997. Specifically, it aims to show variations in agricultural costs as affected by changes in temperature in rainfall. It focuses on wheat, soybean, corn, and potato crops, drawing statistical information from the USDA and NOAA.ÊÊ
3.. Cohen, Joel E. "Population, Economics, Environment and Culture: An Introduction to Carrying Capacity." J. of Applied Ecology. Vol. 34, Issue 6. Dec. 1997. 1325-1333.
4. Culotta, Elizabeth. "Will Plants Profit from High CO2?" Science, New Series. Vol. 286, Issue 5211. May 5, 1995. 654-656.
The Culotta article examines one of the possible benefits of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Research has found the certain plants benefit from increased CO2. Some plants will grow faster and yield more as a result of increased exposure. Though this research has yielded somewhat promising results, the author does not that the effects of increased CO2 on ecosystems is not so apparent or beneficial.
6. Daily, Gretchen C. and Paul R. Ehrlich. "An Exploratory Model of the Impact of Rapid Climate Change on the World Food Situation." Proceedings: Biological Sciences, Volume 231, Issue 1302 (September 1990), 232-244.
This article explains one particular computer model in order to discuss the effects of climate change on global agriculture and the human population. In several scenarios, the authors examine the possible consequences of absolute global food deficits in terms of death toll, which will disproportionately affect the poorer, developing countries. They also briefly examine the relationship between food production and distribution.
7. Evensen, Robert E. "Global and Local Implications of Biotechnology and Climate Change for Future Food Supplies." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Vol. 96, Issue 11. May 25, 1999. 5921-5928.
This article examines some of the bio-technological aspects of food production that will affect global populations. The authors contend that climate change will not cause global shortages of food. However, small regional areas that already have food production issues will continue to suffer.
8. Foster, Phillip and Howard D. Leathers. The World Food Problem. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc., 1999.
This source describes the economic and social conditions surrounding malnutrition and under nutrition in different countries. It discusses the issue of food security in the context of population growth, water rights and distribution of wealth between nations. It also presents possible policy scenarios for improving global food security over the next fifty years.
10. Hansen, W. and J.W. , F.S. Royce and C.D. Messina. "Potential Benefits of Climate Forecasting to Agriculture." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Volume 82 (2000), 169-184.
J.W. Hansen, et al discuss the need for short and long term climate forecasting to maximize the benefits of agricultural growth. Assessing climate change can reduce unwanted impacts and take advantage of expected favorable climates. The benefits of forecasting vary considerably. They can benefit physical, biological, economic, social, and political factors. The basis of this study was the effect that El NINO had on the Southeast USA in comparison with the Pampas region of Argentina.
11. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policy Makers: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptions, and Vulnerability." Prepared for Sixth Session of the IPCC Working Group II (Geneva, Switzerland 13-16 February 2001).
Johnson, D. Gale. World Agriculture in Disarray. London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1991.
This article is part of a comprehensive study regarding the sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change. The report builds upon previous IPCC research. The research is intended for policy-makers to serve as a reference in decision making. We chose this article because it was an encompassing look into the aspects of global climate change. Further, it is the work of a coloboration of scientists across numerous fields.
12. Johnson, D. Gale. World Agriculture in Disarray. London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1991.
This source discusses agricultural trade policies of industrial nations and the problems these policies create for the farmers within these nations and also for the farmers in developing nations. It addresses the problem of price disparity in agricultural products on the global market and discusses the potential for "freer" international agricultural trade policies and government protection of small farmers in developing nations.
13. Luo, Qunying and Erda Lin. "Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Asia-Pacific Region." Climatic Change, Volume 43
(1999), 729-743.
14.. Paul, E.A. and J. Kimble. "Global Climate Change: Interactions with Soil Properties." Published by: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/agriculture/working-papers.html
This article is part of the IPCC's research into global climate change. This paper deals with the explosive growth in crop yields that is concurrent with higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
15. Root, Terry L., and Steven Schneider. "Ecology and Climate: Research Strategies and Implications." Science, News Series. Vol.269, Issue 5222. July 21, 1995. 334-341.
This article covers some of the practices behind research regarding climate change from an ecological perspective.
16. Ross, Douglas N. Partners in Agro Economic Development. New York: The Conference Board Inc., 1977.
This source discusses the role of multinational corporations in solving the world food problem. It also describes the role of government in agricultural development, proscribing new directions in food policy for developing nations, and the United Nation's role in proposing changes to international agricultural trade relations.
17. Ruttan, Vernon W. "The Transition to Agricultural Sustainability." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 96, Issue 11 5960-5967.
This article examines the conditions that could potentially lead to sustainable growth in agriculture in the 21st Century. They also discuss the consequences if such changes fail to occur, mainly in the context of institutional rather than resource constraints. The author focuses on the negative impacts of anthropogenic environmental degradation on regional food production and discusses how these factors might influence poorer, developing nations.
18. Smit, Barry and Cai Yunlong. "Climate Change and Agriculture in China." Global Environmental Change, Volume 6 (1996), 205-214.
The Smit and Yunlong article highlights the implications of global climate change for the nation of China. Given the large geographic size, immense population, and limits on arable land, China's interest in the possibility of future climate change is great. The article uses an interdisciplinary approach to highlighting some of the past climatic events in the history of china and how these events have shaped current agricultural events. Further, geographic studies of ten regions in China yield data about the localized impacts of climate change.
19. Thompson, Paul B. et al. Ethics, Public Policy and Agriculture. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co., 1994.
This source discusses the issue of food security as it relates to public policy in different nations. It relates agriculture to environmental policy in the context of water rights, sustainability, and foreign assistance. It also describes the ways in which different nations' farm policies affect the small farmers of those nations.Ê
20. Tilman, David. "Global Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Expansion: The Need for Sustainable and Efficient Practices." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 96, Issue 11 (May 25, 1999), 5995-6000.
This article discusses the negative environmental impacts of past and present agricultural methods ("modern" agriculture). His argument is based on the projected doubling of the world demand for grain production within the next fifty years and also on projections of population increases over that time period. He proposes several technical approaches to the reduction of ecological impact, but ultimately calls for institutional change in the direction of sustainability.
21. Vandermeer, John. "The Ecological Basis of Sustainable Agriculture." Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. Vol. 26. 1995. 201-224.
This article does not deal with climatic change so much as it does with alternative farming practices. The importance, however, lies within adapting some the ideas brought about by alternative agriculture in the face of climatic change. Further the article deals with converting from our traditional farming practices to those with sustainability in mind.
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