El Nino and its Effects on Hurricanes

This topic submitted by Kimberly Carvey, Joel Lear, Diana Maikut ( maikudl@muohio.edu ) on 1/28/04 .

Global Climate Change -Western Program-Miami University

Research Question
How does El Nino effect hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere?

Specific Predictions
Intense El Ninos increase the intensity of hurricanes in some areas and decrease them in others.
El Nino increase the amount of hurricanes in some areas and decrease them in others?
El Nino causes a rise in extreme weather conditions.
Strong El Nino events increase the amount of damage done by hurricanes and decrease health of populations.
El Ninos increase the length of hurricane season.

Preliminary Research Design
We will use data from the past 25 years comparing El Nino events with the characteristics of hurricanes which include intensity, rate of developement, location of developement, duration, and precipitation. We will also look at specific years and compare data as to when hurricanes developed during an El Nino event.

Library/Journal References
El Nino 1982-83 Cesar N. Caviedes. Geographical Review, Vol. 74, No. 3. (Jul., 1984), pp. 267-290.
Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0016-7428%28198407%2974%3A3%3C267%3AEN1%3E2.0.CO%3B2-H

El Nino-Southern Oscillation 1982-1983: Nearshore Population, Community, and Ecosystem Responses. Peter W. Glynn. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, Vol. 19. (1988), pp. 309-345.
Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0066-4162%281988%2919%3C309%3AENO1NP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-A

Meterological Aspects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Eugene M. Rasmusson; John M. Wallace. Science, New Series, Vol. 222, No. 4629. (Dec. 16, 1983), pp. 1195-1202.
Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0036-8075%2819831216%293%3A222%3A4629%3C1195%3AMAOTEN%3E2.0.CO%3B2-W

The Climate System as a Ticking Clock. Richard A. Kerr. Science, New Series, Vol. 249, No. 4974. (Sep. 14, 1990), pp. 1246-1247.
Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0036-8075%2819900914%293%3A249%3A4974%3C1246%3ATCSAAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K

The Largest, Smallest, Highest, Lowest, Longest, and Shortest: Extremes in Ecology. Steven D. Gaines; Mark W. Denny. Ecology, Vol. 74, No. 6. (Sep., 1993), pp. 1677-1692.
Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9658%28199309%2974%3A6%3C1677%3ATLSHLL%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U

Website References
El Nino, Online Meteorology Guide

What is an El Nino?

El Nino- Research, Forecasts, and Observations

OGP ENSO Website

NOVA Online- Tracking El Nino

PDF Reference Articles

ENSO Impact on Hurricane Landfall Probabilities for the Caribbean. Tartaglione, Carissa A.; Smith, Shawn R.; O'Brien, James J.. Journal of Climate, Sep2003, Vol. 16 Issue 17, p2925, 7p; (AN 10665058)

Research Potential for Improvements in Climate Prediction. By: Zebiak, Stephen E.. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Dec2003, Vol. 84 Issue 12, p1692, 5p; (AN 11762361)

Predictability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation during Autumn, Winter, and Spring. By: Straus, David; Shukla, J.; Paolino, Dan; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max; Pegion, Philip; Kumar, Arun. Journal of Climate, Nov2003, Vol. 16 Issue 22, p3629, 21p; (AN 11396850)

The March 1997 Westerly Wind Event and the Onset of the 1997/98 El Ni–o: Understanding the Role of the Atmospheric Response. By: Lengaigne, Matthieu; Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Menkes, Christophe; Madec, Gurvan; Delecluse, Pascale; Gulyardi, Eric; Slingo, Julia. Journal of Climate, Oct2003, Vol. 16 Issue 20, p3330, 14p; (AN 11054687)

Annual ENSO. By: Tomoki Tozuka; Toshio Yamagata. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Aug2003, Vol. 33 Issue 8, p1564, 15p; (AN 10548885)