Weather Numerical Models and Forecasts

GFS Model 72 hour 500 mb Heights/Vorticity Forecast: Courtesy of the UCAR (Click on Map for a Larger View)

R. Hays Cummins , Western Program, Miami University

Google
Search WWW WITHIN-SITE Keyword Search!!

Welcome! It is 8:14:17 PM on Friday, October 31, 2014 . This page has served 183206 weather fanatics. Last Update: Wednesday, May 7, 2014.


Latest 500 MB Analysis

Look at the 500 mb analysis below. The map is constructed from "real data." The 500 mb level is often used as a predictor to present and future weather conditions. All of the numerical models are "intitialized" with real data such as this.

Latest 500 MB Analysis: Courtesy of the San Francisco State University: Composite Weather Maps (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Be sure to look at an excellent 300 mb Composite Weather Map that includes Pressure Fields, Infrared Satellite Images, and Weather Observations all in one package! From San Francisco State's composite weather page.

Surface Weather Maps

Remember to touch base with the surface conditions! How does the surface weather compare with the upper levels and model predictions?

US Surface Maps

East Surface

Mid-Atl. Surface

New England

National

North Atlantic

Floater

Current Surface Conditions. Any Precip on the way? Courtesy of NOAA


Tips to Reading and Interpreting Weather Maps-- Excellent Instructional Materials

Explanations of these analyses and other maps can be found at:

  • Reading Upper-Level Maps A primer from Hays Cummins
  • Biases in Numerical Models Essential for helping one understand more about weather forecasting.
  • Important Weather Symbols
  • Satellite Training Pages! And much more!
  • Marine Prediction Center's Radiofacsimile Charts User's Guide
  • Surface Weather Analysis Charts Excellent Explanations from the Univ of Wisconsin Dept of Meteorology
  • Reading Weather Maps --The Weather Visualizer Univ of Illinois--Check this out! Lots of solid instructional material.
  • San Francisco State Univ Great explanations of jet streams and their effect on surface weather
  • UNISYS Upper Air Maps
  • COLA's Guide to Analyses and Forecasts . (NGM, ETA. Aviation)

    The Forecast Reasoning--Making Sense of the Predictions!

    National Center for Environmental Prediction: Read What the Pros Have to Say!!
    Click to view larger image
    Current
    Weather

    Click to view current satellite/surface analysis View N Amer/Pacific image
    Current
    Forecast

    Click to view today's current forecast
    *Current forecast is updated by 5am EDT/2am PDT (0900 UTC) daily.

    Legend for Surface Front Symbols and Codes
    Featured Products
    12 Hour
    Fronts/Precipitation
    Click to view latest 12-hour fronts/precip forecast
    24 Hour
    Fronts/Precipitation
    Click to view latest 24-hour fronts/precip forecast
    36 Hour
    Fronts/Precipitation
    Click to view latest 36-hour fronts/precip forecast
    48 Hour
    Fronts/Precipitation
    Click to view latest 48-hour fronts/precip forecast
    Day 3 Fronts
    Click to view latest Day 3 fronts forecast
    Day 4 Fronts
    Click to view latest Day 4 fronts forecast
    Day 5 Fronts
    Click to view latest Day 5 fronts forecast
    Day 6 Fronts
    Click to view latest Day 6 fronts forecast
    Latest
    Surface Analysis
    Click to view latest surface analysis
    Day 1 QPF
    Click to view latest Day 1 QPF
    Day 2 QPF
    Click to view latest Day 2 QPF
    Day 3 QPF
    Click to view latest Day 3 QPF
    Current Conditions and National Weather Service Forecast for Your State and Local Area
    NWS Fax Products (in TIFF format)


    National Center for Environmental Prediction: Read What the Pros Have to Say!!
    NCEP Prognostic Discussion Canada Prognostic Discussion Quantitative Precipitation Discussion

    NCEP Long Range 5-Day Forecast

    Heavy Snowfall Discussion

    Model Discussion

    Prognostic Discussion For 6- To 10-Day Outlook Long Lead Discussion


    0000 UTC AVN 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts 5-Day Means Centered on Days 3, 5, 8 and 11

    North America
    Day 3
    Click to view AVN Day 3 mean
    Day 5
    Click to view AVN Day 5 mean
    Day 8
    Click to view AVN Day 8 mean
    Day 11
    Click to view AVN Day 11 mean

    Northern Hemisphere
    Day 3
    Click to view AVN Day 3 mean
    Day 5
    Click to view AVN Day 5 mean
    Day 8
    Click to view AVN Day 8 mean
    Day 11
    Click to view AVN Day 11 mean


    This data is provided by the Climate Prediction Center. Each forecast is valid the specified number of days after the initialization of the most recent AVN run at 0000 UTC (7 PM EST). These maps are updated daily, normally by 1500 UTC (10 AM EST).


    Satellite Sites (Single Frame Pictures)

    Forecast Model Maps

    Take a moment to examine the latest model output below. Compare the interpretation of the RUC, NGM and ETA models. Each model has its merits and weaknesses.

    Rapid Update Cycle: Relative Humidity and Instability (Shown by Hatched Area). Courtesy of the UNISYS Weather Processor: RUC Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    Rapid Cycle Update 500 MB: UNISYS Weather Processor: RUC Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    ETA 48 hour Forecast: Courtesy of the Univ of Wisconsin(Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    GFS Model 72 hour 500 mb Heights/Anomaly Forecast: Courtesy of the UCAR (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    NGM 48 Hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the Ohio State's Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    Aviation 48 Hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the UNISYS Weather Processor (Click on Map for a Larger View)

    MRF 48 Hour 300 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the San Francisco State Univ Weather Processor (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    MRF: 36 hour 500 mb Courtesy of the Ohio State Univ:Numerical Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    Aviation 60 Hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the UNISYS (Click on Map for a Larger View)


    Long Range Model Forecasts

    These models look further ahead into the future. Their margins of error can be large. But, it's worth the effort.

    Aviation 300 mb 48 Hour Forecast. Courtesy of the UNISYS Computer Models (Click on Map for a Larger View)

    Medium Range Forecast Surface 144 Hours: Courtesy of the Ohio State University: Numerical Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

     

    Aviation:48 hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the UNISYS Numerical Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)


    Numerical Model Selections

    5 Day Ensemble NCEP MRF Forecast (120 hours). From the Univ of Wisconsin

    Here are a few of my favorite numerical models. More will be added with time. Thanks to COLA, NOAA, Ohio State, UCAR, Univ of Utah, Univ of Wisconsin, the US Navy and many others for making these maps available to us!

    Univ of Wisconsin, Numerical Model Grids!

    THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER (Absolutely Outstanding!)

    Ohio State's Numerical Modeling Forecast Page (Absolutely Outstanding!)

    Model Comparison Plots (Climate Diagnostic Center)

    Computer Model Forecasts (COLA) (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies)

    COLA North Hemisphere Medium Range Forecast

    Analysis Initial
    24 hr
    48 hr
    72 hr
    96 hr
    144 hr
    Surface
    0
    24
    48
    72
    96
    144
    500 mb
    0
    24
    48
    72
    96
    144
    850 mb
    0
    24
    48
    72
    96
    144
    200 mb
    0
    24
    48
    72
    96
    144

    COLA Aviation Forecast

    Analysis Initial
    12 hr
    24 hr
    48 hr
    72 hr
    Surface
    0
    12
    24
    48
    72
    500 mb
    0
    12
    24
    48
    72
    850 mb
    0
    12
    24
    48
    72
    200 mb
    0
    12
    24
    48
    72


    COLA ETA Forecast

    Analysis Initial
    12 hr
    24 hr
    48 hr
    Surface
    0
    12
    24
    48
    500 mb
    0
    12
    24
    48
    850 mb
    0
    12
    24
    48
    200 mb
    0
    12
    24
    48

    COLA MRF Computer Model of Tropical Weather (200 mb, 850 mb, SSTemps, etc)

    Climate Diagnostic Center Map Room Weather Products

    COLA Extended Forecasts

  • 10 day Extended Forecast Temperature Graphics
  • 10 Day Extended Forecast Precipitation
  • 3 Month Lead Prediction Graphics
  • Climate Prediction Products
  • El Nino Predictions -Tropical Pacific SST Predictions with a Coupled GCM
  • Texas A&M -Models Atmosphere to 48 hrs)

    UNISYS Weather Processor (A Very Organized Presentation of Model Info)

      Quick Menu Nested Grid Medium Range   ETA Global Aviation

    Forecasting Models -From WeatherNet Computer Models

    Univ of Utah--Numerical Models (A first-class weather machine)

    Be sure to examine Utah's animated gifs of the models below. Visualize tropospheric undulations!

    Univ of Albany--Numerical Models (A different perspective!)

    Real Time Weather Data--Numerical Models Terrific Site!

    Texas A&M--Numerical Models (Hello Aggies!)

    Kevin's International Model Page--Numerical Models

    Univ of Illinois--The Weather Visualizer!

    6-10 Day 500MB Forecast Can you use the other numerical model maps on this page to understand why NCEP has made these forecasts? Courtesy of the National Weather Service (Click on Map for a Larger View)


    FAX Charts

    FAX charts are remarkable in their clarity and diversity and make up the Bulk of the Western "Weather Wall" here at Miami University. While many weather machines provide more colorful maps & charts, FAX charts are Excellent for Display, Especially When Using Black & White Printing. These charts are in TIFF format and can be easily opened with Graphic Converter. Most of the charts need to be rotated 90, 180, or 270 degrees for Viewing!

    Canadian Meteorological Center (Weather analyses for the US and Canada. Check these maps out. They cover a broad swath of North America and go far into the Pacific. Fantastic!)

  • Current Weather Analyses
  • Weather Models
  • Satellite Imagery
  • Other FAX Charts by Geographic Regions:

    Hurricane and Other Weather Queries!

    The database has a very large number of links and descriptions of URLs on tropical weather, ecology, and earth science. Just type in a few key words!

    Enter some key words to search by (Images, specific storms, NHC reports, typhoons, tracks, etc.):

    Find pages with of these words and return results.

    Detailed Results Search Phonetically Begins With Searching 

    Search for key words found only in: URLs Titles Header

    Got Mac OS 10.2 or Higher?   Download Hays' Sherlock Channel

    Site NAVIGATION--Table of Contents

    Listen to a "Voice Navigation" Intro! (Quicktime or MP3)

    Google
    Search WWW WITHIN-SITE Keyword Search!!

    WEATHER & EARTH SCIENCE RESOURCES

    TROPICAL ECOSYSTEM FIELD COURSES

    Hays' Marine Ecology Images and Movies Ohio Bird Photo Collection | Tropical Bird Collection | Costa Rica Image Collection | Edge of the Farm Conservation Area | Hays' Tarantula Page | Local Watershed Fish Studies| Wildflowers, Arthropods, ETC in SW Ohio | Earth Science Resources | Astronomy Links | Global Change | Marine Ecology "Creature Study Guide" |

    OTHER ACADEMIC COURSES, STUDENT RESEARCH, OTHER STUFF

    | Educational Philosophy | Discovery Labs: Moon, Geologic Time, Sun, Taxonomy, Frisbee | Project Dragonfly | Vita |Field Course Postings | Student Research Postings | Nature/Science Autobiography | Environmental Programs at Miami University

    TEACHING TOOLS & OTHER STUFF

    Daily Necessities: Macintosh Resources |Search Engines | Library Resources|Server Stats| Family Album | View My Schedule | View Guestbook | Western College "Multimedia Potpourri"

    Any other mail, comments or suggestions for additions to the site? You can Add to my Guestbook, View the Guestbook, or e-mail me privately @ haysc@miamioh.edu

    Thanks for stopping by!