Weather Numerical Models & Forecasts

Weather Numerical Models and Forecasts

29km MESO-ETA Model 30 Hour 500 MB Forecast/Absolute Vorticity (Spin in the atmosphere--the more "red" the better!): Courtesy of the Ohio State Weather Processor (Click on Map for a Larger View)

R. Hays Cummins , Western Program, Miami University

Welcome! It is 5:15:57 PM on Wednesday, May 16, 2012 . This page has served 161271 weather fanatics. Last Update: Wednesday, December 10, 2008.

Latest 500 MB Analysis

Look at the 500 mb analysis below. The map is constructed from "real data." The 500 mb level is often used as a predictor to present and future weather conditions. All of the numerical models are "intitialized" with real data such as this.

Latest 500 MB Analysis: Courtesy of the San Francisco State University: Composite Weather Maps (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Be sure to look at an excellent 300 mb Composite Weather Map that includes Pressure Fields, Infrared Satellite Images, and Weather Observations all in one package! From San Francisco State's composite weather page.

Surface Weather Maps

Remember to touch base with the surface conditions! How does the surface weather compare with the upper levels and model predictions?

NOAA Surface Map with an excellent NCEP Text Discussion
NOAA Standard Surface Weather Map
IR/Surface Composite Map from UNISYS University's Fantastic Weather Machine
Surface Composite Map from San Francisco State Univ

US Surface Maps

East Surface

Mid-Atl. Surface

New England

National

North Atlantic

Floater

Current Surface Conditions. Any Precip on the way? Courtesy of NOAA

Tips to Reading and Interpreting Weather Maps-- Excellent Instructional Materials

Explanations of these analyses and other maps can be found at:

Reading Upper-Level Maps A primer from Hays Cummins

Biases in Numerical Models Essential for helping one understand more about weather forecasting.

Important Weather Symbols

Satellite Training Pages! And much more!

Marine Prediction Center's Radiofacsimile Charts User's Guide

Surface Weather Analysis Charts Excellent Explanations from the Univ of Wisconsin Dept of Meteorology

Reading Weather Maps --The Weather Visualizer Univ of Illinois--Check this out! Lots of solid instructional material.

San Francisco State Univ Great explanations of jet streams and their effect on surface weather

Interpreting Weather-Satellite Images. A first rate lab exercise! Includes info on (GOES) and other satellites.

UNISYS Upper Air Maps

UNISYS Model Forecast Analyses and Interpretations (NGM, Aviation, ETA, MRF Models)

COLA's Guide to Analyses and Forecasts . (NGM, ETA. Aviation)

MRF Details

The Forecast Reasoning--Making Sense of the Predictions!

National Center for Environmental Prediction: Read What the Pros Have to Say!!

Click to view larger image

Current
Weather
View N Amer/Pacific image Current
Forecast

^*Current forecast is updated by 5am EDT/2am PDT (0900 UTC) daily.

Legend for Surface Front Symbols and Codes
Featured Products

12 Hour
Fronts/Precipitation
24 Hour
Fronts/Precipitation
36 Hour
Fronts/Precipitation
48 Hour
Fronts/Precipitation

Day 3 Fronts
Day 4 Fronts
Day 5 Fronts
Day 6 Fronts

Latest
Surface Analysis
Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF

Current Conditions and National Weather Service Forecast for Your State and Local Area
NWS Fax Products (in TIFF format)

National Center for Environmental Prediction: Read What the Pros Have to Say!!
NCEP Prognostic Discussion Canada Prognostic Discussion Quantitative Precipitation Discussion

NCEP Long Range 5-Day Forecast
Heavy Snowfall Discussion
Model Discussion

Prognostic Discussion For 6- To 10-Day Outlook Long Lead Discussion

0000 UTC AVN 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts 5-Day Means Centered on Days 3, 5, 8 and 11

North America

Day 3
Day 5
Day 8
Day 11

Northern Hemisphere

Day 3
Day 5
Day 8
Day 11

This data is provided by the Climate Prediction Center. Each forecast is valid the specified number of days after the initialization of the most recent AVN run at 0000 UTC (7 PM EST). These maps are updated daily, normally by 1500 UTC (10 AM EST).

Satellite Sites (Single Frame Pictures)

Forecast Model Maps

Take a moment to examine the latest model output below. Compare the interpretation of the RUC, NGM and ETA models. Each model has its merits and weaknesses.

Rapid Update Cycle: Relative Humidity and Instability (Shown by Hatched Area). Courtesy of the UNISYS Weather Processor: RUC Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Rapid Cycle Update 500 MB: UNISYS Weather Processor: RUC Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

ETA 48 hour Forecast: Courtesy of the Univ of Wisconsin(Click on Map for a Larger View)

GFS Model 72 hour 500 mb Heights/Anomaly Forecast: Courtesy of the UCAR (Click on Map for a Larger View)

NGM 48 Hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the Ohio State's Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Aviation 48 Hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the UNISYS Weather Processor (Click on Map for a Larger View)

MRF 48 Hour 300 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the San Francisco State Univ Weather Processor (Click on Map for a Larger View)

MRF: 36 hour 500 mb Courtesy of the Ohio State Univ:Numerical Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Aviation 60 Hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the UNISYS (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Long Range Model Forecasts

These models look further ahead into the future. Their margins of error can be large. But, it's worth the effort.

Aviation 300 mb 48 Hour Forecast. Courtesy of the UNISYS Computer Models (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Medium Range Forecast Surface 144 Hours: Courtesy of the Ohio State University: Numerical Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Aviation:48 hour 500 MB Forecast: Courtesy of the UNISYS Numerical Model Page (Click on Map for a Larger View)

Numerical Model Selections

5 Day Ensemble NCEP MRF Forecast (120 hours). From the Univ of Wisconsin

Here are a few of my favorite numerical models. More will be added with time. Thanks to COLA, NOAA, Ohio State, UCAR, Univ of Utah, Univ of Wisconsin, the US Navy and many others for making these maps available to us!

Univ of Wisconsin, Numerical Model Grids!

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER (Absolutely Outstanding!)

Ohio State's Numerical Modeling Forecast Page (Absolutely Outstanding!)

Model Comparison Plots (Climate Diagnostic Center)

Computer Model Forecasts (COLA) (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies)

COLA North Hemisphere Medium Range Forecast

Analysis Initial 24 hr 48 hr 72 hr 96 hr 144 hr

Surface 0 24 48 72 96 144

500 mb 0 24 48 72 96 144

850 mb 0 24 48 72 96 144

200 mb 0 24 48 72 96 144

COLA North Hemisphere Medium Range Forecast
Analysis	Initial	24 hr	48 hr	72 hr	96 hr	144 hr
Surface	0	24	48	72	96	144
500 mb	0	24	48	72	96	144
850 mb	0	24	48	72	96	144
200 mb	0	24	48	72	96	144

Map Key

COLA Aviation Forecast
Analysis	Initial	12 hr	24 hr	48 hr	72 hr
Surface	0	12	24	48	72
500 mb	0	12	24	48	72
850 mb	0	12	24	48	72
200 mb	0	12	24	48	72

COLA ETA Forecast
Analysis	Initial	12 hr	24 hr	48 hr
Surface	0	12	24	48
500 mb	0	12	24	48
850 mb	0	12	24	48
200 mb	0	12	24	48

Map Key
Rapid Cycle Updates By Region (Rapid Cycle Updates every 3 hours)
KEY & Information to Maps
Central US (Maps at 3-hour intervals-Temp., Pressure, & Precip)
Regional Analysis Prediction Branch (Info about new experimental maps & predictions)
Maps by region & type (An amazing variety of weather info updated every three hours)

El Nino Predictions -Tropical Pacific SST Predictions with a Coupled GCM

Texas A&M -Models Atmosphere to 48 hrs)

Surface Analysis 48 Hour Surface Analysis
500 mb Vorticity 48 Hour 500 mb map

UNISYS Weather Processor (A Very Organized Presentation of Model Info)

Quick Menu Nested Grid Medium Range ETA Global Aviation

Rapid Cycle Updates (Models updated to near real time conditions)
- 4-Panel Surface Rapid Cycle Update (3,6,9, 12 hours)
- 4-Panel 500 mb Rapid Cycle Update (3, 6, 9, 12 hrs)
- 4 Panel Relative Humidity/Lifted Index Forecast
A Really Neat Relative Humidity/Lifted Index Movie (UNISYS)
All UNISYS Model Selections-for all times- in Table Form (Compliments of WeatherNet)
Model Details (To Better Understand the Maps)
All NGM Forecasts (Nested Grid Model)
- 12, 24, 36 & 48 Hour Forecasts
- 4-Panel (Relative Humidity & Lifting Index) The LI field shows instability in the atmosphere. Lower Values>Instability
Medium Range Forecasts (Up to 10 Days Out)
- MRF Model Details

UNISYS's Hurricane Tropical Data For you hurricane lovers!

Aviation Surface Analysis & Forecasts Aviation 500 mb Analysis & Forecast Aviation 300 mbAnalysis & Forecast

Sea Level Analysis Analysis Analysis

24 hr Forecast 24 hr Forecast 24 hr Forecast

48 hr Forecast 48 hr Forecas 48 hr Forecast

Forecasting Models -From WeatherNet Computer Models

UKMET Surface Analysis & Forecasts UKMET 500 mb Analysis & Forecast UKMET 250 mbAnalysis & Forecast

Analysis Analysis Analysis

24 hr Forecast 24 hr Forecast 24 hr Forecast

48 hr Forecast 48 hr Forecast 48 hr Forecast

72 hr Forecast 72 hr Forecast 72 hr Forecast

Univ of Utah--Numerical Models (A first-class weather machine)

Be sure to examine Utah's animated gifs of the models below. Visualize tropospheric undulations!

Univ of Albany--Numerical Models (A different perspective!)

Real Time Weather Data--Numerical Models Terrific Site!

Twelve Hour Surface Pressure

Excellent Teaching Tools! Real Time Weather Data Numerical Model Movies
RUC 12 Hour Surface MSLP RUC 850 MB Winds RUC 500 MB Winds RUC 500 MB Temp

ETA Surface MSLP 48 Hour Movie ETA Vorticity 500 MB Movie ETA 500 MB Winds 48 Hour Movie ETA 500 MB Temp 48 Hour Movie

**Excellent Teaching Tools! Real Time Weather Data Numerical Model Movies**
RUC 12 Hour Surface MSLP	RUC 850 MB Winds	RUC 500 MB Winds	RUC 500 MB Temp
ETA Surface MSLP 48 Hour Movie	ETA Vorticity 500 MB Movie	ETA 500 MB Winds 48 Hour Movie	ETA 500 MB Temp 48 Hour Movie

Texas A&M--Numerical Models (Hello Aggies!)

The Forecast "Expert" Page. All of the Analyses are on One Page!

Kevin's International Model Page--Numerical Models

Univ of Illinois--The Weather Visualizer!

Forecast Images and Data Build Your Own Analyses!

6-10 Day 500MB Forecast Can you use the other numerical model maps on this page to understand why NCEP has made these forecasts? Courtesy of the National Weather Service (Click on Map for a Larger View)

FAX Charts

FAX charts are remarkable in their clarity and diversity and make up the Bulk of the Western "Weather Wall" here at Miami University. While many weather machines provide more colorful maps & charts, FAX charts are Excellent for Display, Especially When Using Black & White Printing. These charts are in TIFF format and can be easily opened with Graphic Converter. Most of the charts need to be rotated 90, 180, or 270 degrees for Viewing!

Canadian Meteorological Center (Weather analyses for the US and Canada. Check these maps out. They cover a broad swath of North America and go far into the Pacific. Fantastic!)

Current Weather Analyses

500 mb North American Map Perhaps my favorite 500 mb map ever! Here is a SMALLER 500 MB map
250 mb North American Map Here is a SMALLER 250 MB map
Classic Surface Analysis

Weather Models

Satellite Imagery

Other FAX Charts by Geographic Regions:

Hurricane and Other Weather Queries!

The database has a very large number of links and descriptions of URLs on tropical weather, ecology, and earth science. Just type in a few key words!
Enter some key words to search by (Images, specific storms, NHC reports, typhoons, tracks, etc.):

Find pages with of these words and return results.

Detailed Results Search Phonetically Begins With Searching

Search for key words found only in: URLs Titles Header

Got Mac OS 10.2 or Higher? Download Hays' Sherlock Channel

Site NAVIGATION--Table of Contents

Listen to a "Voice Navigation" Intro! (Quicktime or MP3)

WEATHER & EARTH SCIENCE RESOURCES

OTHER ACADEMIC COURSES, STUDENT RESEARCH, OTHER STUFF

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Any other mail, comments or suggestions for additions to the site? You can Add to my Guestbook, View the Guestbook, or e-mail me privately @ haysc@muohio.edu

North America
Day 3	Day 5	Day 8	Day 11

Northern Hemisphere
Day 3	Day 5	Day 8	Day 11

Aviation Surface Analysis & Forecasts	Aviation 500 mb Analysis & Forecast	Aviation 300 mbAnalysis & Forecast
Sea Level Analysis	Analysis	Analysis
24 hr Forecast	24 hr Forecast	24 hr Forecast
48 hr Forecast	48 hr Forecas	48 hr Forecast

UKMET Surface Analysis & Forecasts	UKMET 500 mb Analysis & Forecast	UKMET 250 mbAnalysis & Forecast
Analysis	Analysis	Analysis
24 hr Forecast	24 hr Forecast	24 hr Forecast
48 hr Forecast	48 hr Forecast	48 hr Forecast
72 hr Forecast	72 hr Forecast	72 hr Forecast