In April '99, Dr. Gray forecast 14 named storms during the '99 season. He was only two off!
The 48 Hour Aviation Model Surface Prediction (From UNISYS )
Dr. Gray's Famous Long-Range Hurricane Forecasting Predictions
You'll need Apple's Quicktime to view these movies.
So far this year, I have been busy working on other projects. So,... the frequency of site updates has been dramatically reduced. But, I do have some imagery and thoughts on Hurricane Katrina. Being a New Orlean's native, I was horrified to see what happened to my home town. Much of the imagery below was obtained from weathertap.com, GOES Hot Stuff, the New York Times, and NOAA. The amazing thing is that, believe it or not, it could have been much worse for all involved. As of 10/7/05, there have been over 1000 reported fatalities from Lousiana and about 220 fatalities in Mississippi.
The year 2004 was spectacular in terms of the number of hurricanes that struck the US coastline. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS group provided two spectacular Parade of Storm movies. The first movie is (1) an Enhanced Infrared Quicktime Movie while the second is (2) a Water Vapor Quicktime of the 2004 Parade of Storms! I've also included a nice composite satellite photo of Alex, Bonnie, Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne from CMISS.Hurricane Ivan:
CLICK to see Morphed Animated Real Time Imagery of Hurricane Ivan Imagery as Ivan passed near Cuba, Created July 2004 by Tony Wimmers at CIMSS
Just CLICK on the image above for a Quicktime Movie of Hurricane Frances. From the Univ of Wisconscin Tropical Cyclone Page
Hurricane Charley made landfall today (Aug 13, 2004) just north of Sannibel Island along the western Florida coast. Areas just south of the Charley's landfalling center experienced a significant storm surge. Charley rapidely intensified prior to landfall. At 9:00am, central pressure was 970mb. By 4:00pm, Charley's pressure bottomed out at 941mb, a 29mb drop in only 6-7 hours. Recon reported flight level winds of 148 knots at his peak--the eye had contracted to 5nm when he went inland over North Captiva island.
2003 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)
I start my archiving with Hurricane Claudette which went ashore on July 15, 2003 along the Texas coast. It could be a busy year in the Atlantic.
2002 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)
Until 09/19/02, I really had nothing of note to post on the 2002 Atlantic Hurrricane Tracking season. The season was absolutely pathetic (at least till Isidore came along!)
Isidore has the potential to be the storm of 2002. We'll have to see though.
Lili initially followed in Isidore's footsteps across Western Cuba. Lili will be far more powerful than Isidore when she hits the Louisiana coast.
2001 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)
Allison--the first storm of the 2001 season--(6/4-6/17/01)
Allison,an early season storm, was a prodigous rain maker, dumping record rainfall totals in southern Texas and Louisiana. Damage estimates are in the billions of dollars. Severe thunderstorms, floods, and tornadoes killed about 41 people, 23 in Texas alone. Here are estimated rainfall totals for the Houston, Tx area on 06/09/01. The storm lasted more than 10 days! Up to 40 inches of rain fell in parts of Louisiana, 30-40 inches near Houston, Tx, and between 6-12 inches along the gulf coast to New England.
Barry--the second storm of the 2001 season--(birth date 8/2/01)
Barry developed from a long-lived tropical wave that slowed down and intensified in the Gulf of Mexico. Here is the National Hurricane center's projected track as of 8/2/01. Will Texas get hammered again? We will see! So for, intensification has been slow, but deliberate inspite of hostile upper level winds.
Chantal--the third storm of the 2001 season--(birth date 8/16/01)
Erin, Felix and Gabrielle
Humberto and Juliette
Michelle--An Intense, Late Fall Hurricane
2000 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)
Alberto--the first storm of the 2000 season
Debby--the fourth storm of the 2000 season
Why the Late August-Early September Hurricane Seasons has, well, sucked. Note the very strong upper level trough which wrecked havoc on tropical system development and persistence due to strong wind shear. When will it go away?
FINALLY--Things Pick Up!
1999 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives
Hurricane Lenny--the amazing "eastward moving" November Caribbean Storm
Hurricane Floyd--(His 1999 Path)
Hurricanes Dennis and Cindy
Archives: 1999 East Pacific and Other Locations
As of 11/8/98, there are estimates of over 13,000 people killed in Central America, mostly from mud slides and river flooding. Absolutely unbelievable. Sometimes I forget about the impact of extreme weather phenomena on people.
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