Hays' Tropical Weather Pages

ARCHIVES: Spectacular Hurricane Movies and Images--Past and Present (pg 3 of 3)

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R. Hays Cummins , Interdisciplinary Studies, Miami University

Welcome! It is 2:24:55 AM on Saturday, May 18, 2013. This page has served 501724 hurricane watchers. Last update: Friday, April 19, 2013

After many years of research, I have finally found the answer to the effects El Nino has on Hurricane Development. See for yourself: A movie of: "How El Nino Effects Hurricane Development" Thanks Chris Farley!

A barograph tracing of Hurricane Hugo as Hugo passed over St. Croix, September, 1989.

Visit the Hot Site of the Day!

Jones College Hurricane Resource Center

Archives: Spectacular Hurricane Movies and Images--Past and Present

You'll need Apple's Quicktime to view these movies.

2005 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives

Hurricane Katrina

So far this year, I have been busy working on other projects. So,... the frequency of site updates has been dramatically reduced. But, I do have some imagery and thoughts on Hurricane Katrina. Being a New Orlean's native, I was horrified to see what happened to my home town. Much of the imagery below was obtained from weathertap.com, GOES Hot Stuff, the New York Times, and NOAA. The amazing thing is that, believe it or not, it could have been much worse for all involved. As of 10/7/05, there have been over 1000 reported fatalities from Lousiana and about 220 fatalities in Mississippi.

08/27/05 0715z-- Katrina was clearly getting her act together west of the Florida Keys. Excellent outflow, small eye, and warm gulf waters ahead.
08/27/05 2255z-- Later in the day. The small eye dissappeared but ......Katrina is clearly getting her act together as shown on this enhanced IR animated gif
08/28/05 0702z-- When I awoke on Sunday morning, Katrina dramatically intensifies and had a "Perfect Storm" appearance. At this point, I was very afraid for New Orleans.
08/28/05 1032z-- Another, slightly later Enhanced Water Vapor perspective followed by and Enhanced IR animated gif.
08/28/05 1148z-- This is what Katrina looked like just as the sun was rising in the Gulf of Mexico, a Visible Image. Wow!
08/28/05 1410z-- A few hours later, Enhanced IR animated gif.
08/28/05 1425z-- A beautiful Visible Image of Katrina
08/28/05 1515z-- An impressive visible image of Katrina Pressure was down to 908 mb.
08/28/05 1532z-- A change of pace--an animated Visible Satellite Image (Note the approaching trough over Texas that turns Katrina to the north) followed by an Enhanced Water Vapor Animated gif
08/28/05 1815Z-- A wonderful Visible Image of Katrina. Pressure was down to an amazing 902 mb.
08/28/05 2232z-- Late Sunday evening, I began to see signs of weakening as Katrina looked more ragged in this Enhanced IR animated gif. She's making her northerly turn which eventually spared New Orleans the core of the storm.
08/29/05 0840z-- This enhanced IR photo tells me that Katrina is weakening. Note the western side of the CDO. It is eroding. Dry air intrusion from the west? On the other hand, east of the eye, thunderstorms were still very intense. As far as I can tell, the highest wind reported from the New Orleans area was a gust to 105 MPH. Yet, this is little comfort to those folks in St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes in La and those communities along the Mississippi gulf coast that experienced 20-30 ft storm surges.
08/29/05 1230z-- A unique weather radar animated gif of Katrina as the center moves just east of New Orleans
08/29/05 1345z-- A Visible Image of Katrina as she moved inland. Her pressure was still an amazing 922 mb. Winds were estimated at 120 knots, but, so far, I have been unable to find any winds that high on the ground.
08/29/05 1515z-- As Katrina moves inland, she seemed to get better organized--note the symmetric CDO and cooling cloud tops.
A wonderful Quicktime movie of Katrina from GOES Hot Stuff from August 24-29.
New Orleans was devastated by flooding as a result of several levee failures. Here is an image of the New Orleans area covered with water. Here is another perspective of the flooded regions in New Orleans
A NASA photo shows the 17th Avenue Canal Levee Break that proved so devastating.
Here is the track of Hurricane Katrina. And, as a bonus (from UW-CIMSS), an IR four day movie of Hurricane Katrina over its path! Beautiful.
A spectacular Storm-Centered Visible Quicktime Movie of Hurricane Katrina over the life of the storm from UW-CIMSS.
A Quicktime VIDEO of some of the incredible damage done along the SW Mississippi and extreme SE Louisisana coasts by Hurricane Katrina Authored by Hays Cummins
A Quicktime SLIDESHOW of some of the incredible damage done along the SW Mississippi and extreme SE Louisisana coasts by Hurricane Katrina Authored by Donna McCollum & Hays Cummins
A Quicktime VIDEO of Hurricane Katrina Damage at Jean Lafitte National Park in SE Louisiana. Authored by Hays Cummins
A collection of slides taken from the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coast region four months after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast. Authored by Donna McCollum, Hays Cummins and Adam Cummins

Hurricane Rita

09/20/05 17:00z-- Hurricane Rita begins to consolidate just south of Key West, Radar ANimated GIF.
09/20/05 1549z-- Hurricane Rita, Visible Image. Note the developing eye.
09/21/05 1119z--An Infrared Enhanced IR shows Hurricane Rita about 190 miles west of Key West, moving west. Note the deep, nearly symmetric convection. Pressure had dropped to 948 mb and winds had increased to 135 MPH making Rita a category 4 storm.
09/21/05 1245z--A fantastic Visible image early in the morning. Rita is intensifying. Note the CDO. Wow!
09/21/05 1225z--Note the expanding CDO and increasing symmetry of the core. Is Cat 5 in the hopper? AMAZING!
09/21/05 Computer models seem to be concentrating on the central Texas coast.
09/21/05 1600z--Pressure, as determined by Recon, had dropped to 934 mb. Max flight level winds were up to 137 knots, E Quad at 1516z. Wow! Here is a Visible Image at 1656z.
09/21/05 1648z--Here is an amazing Enhanced Water Vapor Animated Gif of Rita. Holy Mackerel! Check out that symmetry.
09/21/05 1728z--Pressure was down to 923 mb, winds 142 kts in NE Quad at 16:58z. Here is a 1758z Visible image.Amazing!
09/20/05 1915z--A spectacular Visible Image of Rita whose pressure had dropped to 920 mb, sustained winds at 130 knots. RECON: MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z By the end of the day, Rita's pressure had dropped to an amazing 897 mb! WOW!
09/21/05 2145z--A beautiful GOES Hot Stuff image of Rita WOW!
09/22/05 1345z--A Visible Image of Rita on Thursday morning.
09/22/05 1418z--Rita has peaked and begun her weakening phase. She has also started her WNW jog. Pressure was up to 907 mb and her central core (CDO) is warmer, asymmetric, and smaller than yesterday, enhanced Water Vapor Loop. She also seems to have slowed her forward motion. Outflow is not as impressive as yesterday.
09/22/05 1615z--An Infrared satelite loop showing Rita's path. I'm starting to get worried that she is already making her more northward turn. Oh Oh!
09/22/05 1743z--Rita's cloud tops are cooling and she looks a bit more symmetrical. Note the northerly component to her movement, Enhanced Animated IR GIF
09/22/05 1934z--An afternoon Visible Animated GIF of Rita. Holy Cow!
09/23/05 Stephanie, from Clear Lake City in SE Houston, passed along this night video of Rita as her eye moved inland east of Houston. Thanks Stephanie! She estimated winds of near 70 MPH.

2004 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives

The year 2004 was spectacular in terms of the number of hurricanes that struck the US coastline. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS group provided two spectacular Parade of Storm movies. The first movie is (1) an Enhanced Infrared Quicktime Movie while the second is (2) a Water Vapor Quicktime of the 2004 Parade of Storms! I've also included a nice composite satellite photo of Alex, Bonnie, Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne from CMISS.

Hurricane Ivan:

CLICK to see Morphed Animated Real Time Imagery of Hurricane Ivan Imagery as Ivan passed near Cuba, Created July 2004 by Tony Wimmers at CIMSS

09/11/04, 20:00z--TA JUST RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB AND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 165 MPH...270 KM/HR. THESE NEW VALUES OR FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. Here is a VISIBLE ANIM GIF of Ivan thru 1932z. Wow! An amazing storm! Look out Grand Cayman.

Pressure has dropped to 913mb. Here is a VISIBLE Image just before the sun set.

09/13/04--Category 5 Hurricane Ivan heads for the extreme western tip of Cuba as shown on this Visible Animated GIF.

An interesting comparison of Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan From the University of Wisconsin Tropical Cyclone Pages

After rising to over 920mb, Pressure dropped to about 912mb, 26.93 inches. Here is a VISIBLE Image just south of the Western Cuban coast

09/14/04--Hurricane Ivan emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. Pressure has risen to 931mb (from 910mb), but, he recently looks a little better organized. The Big Question--Will Ivan make that N then NE turn and spare thge Louisiana coast? View a spectacular, late afternoon, VISIBLE ANIMATED GIF of Hurricane Ivan.

09/15/04--Hurricane Ivan (939 mb) approaches the northern Gulf coast as shown in this spectacular Visible Animated GIF. He seems to be better organized than earlier today. The CDO is more symmetrical and the eyewall seems solid. The eye is 40nm in diameter and outflow is well established. New Orleans will be spared the worst.

09/15/04--The CDO had greatly expanded in the western quadrant as shown by this IR Animated GIF thru 1815z

09/15/04--Hurricane Ivan regains a "well defined eye" just prior to moving inland along the northern gulf coast, IR Movie thru 1915z.

A spectacular Visible Image of Hurricane Ivan at 2101z as he neared the northern Gulf coast. Pressure had dropped to 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

Hurricane Frances

Just CLICK on the image above for a Quicktime Movie of Hurricane Frances. From the Univ of Wisconscin Tropical Cyclone Page

09/02/04--Hurricane Frances passes directly over San Salvador, Bahamas as shown on this Visible Animated Gif. Pressure was up to 949 mb,

09/02/04--Hurricane Frances demonstrates excellent outflow as shown in this Animated Water Vapor Movie. Perhaps he was experiencing an eye replacement cycle.

09/02/04--Hurricane Frances IR Loop shows the amazing decrease in organization as he moves over San Salavdor, Bahamas. As bad as it was on San Salvador, it could have been so much worse.

09/02/04--Hurricane Frances 1000 meter resolution image. Spectacular! The eye is over San Salvador.

09/02/04--Hurricane Frances North American weather perspective Spectacular! Frances is a very large storm. The eye is over San Salvador. Note the impressive outflow. SAN SALVADOR JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

09/02/04--An Infrared Quicktime of Hurricane Frances as he moves directly over San Salvador. Note the reduction of the eye feature of the storm. The center circulation seems to be totally disrupted. HOWEVER, SAN SALVADOR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EYEWALL PASSED OVER THE ISLAND... AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 101 MPH IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. SAN SALVADOR REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 948 MB ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO WHEN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYE PASSED OVER THE ISLAND. Some obervations from Millenium Tropical Weather "As I write this mid-afternoon Thursday, Frances eye has closed up somewhat and become shrouded. That in and of itself is meaningless, as this could simply be another eyewall replacement cycle. However, it has been accompanied by a somewhat less symmetric central dense overcast (CDO) and a modest pressure rise up to the highest pressure we've seen in a while. The latest recon fix put Frances at 949mb. That's up roughly 10mb since this morning. While pressures can also rise during an eyewall replacement cycle, rising by 10mb is excessive. "

Here are some photos from the damage on San Salvador taken by Dr. Doug Gamble, University of North carolina-Wilmington

Hurricane Charley:

Hurricane Charley made landfall today (Aug 13, 2004) just north of Sannibel Island along the western Florida coast. Areas just south of the Charley's landfalling center experienced a significant storm surge. Charley rapidely intensified prior to landfall. At 9:00am, central pressure was 970mb. By 4:00pm, Charley's pressure bottomed out at 941mb, a 29mb drop in only 6-7 hours. Recon reported flight level winds of 148 knots at his peak--the eye had contracted to 5nm when he went inland over North Captiva island.

Radar Animated Gifs

08/13/04,0900) Charley Animated GIF west of Key West, pressure 970 mb, winds 110mph and very well organized

08/13/04,0937) Charley Animated GIF. Is he making the forecast NNE turn? Looks like it., pressure 970 mb, winds 110mph and very well organized. Look out Tampa!

08/13/04,1056am) Charley Animated GIF., Pressure has dropped to 965 mb (28.49 inches), winds are about 110mph and the eyewall seems to be getting better organized.

Here is the 1522z Recon data. Surface winds are estimated at 125 mph. URNT12 KNHC 131522 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 13/1522Z B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N 82 DEG 40 MIN W C. 700 MB 2786 M D. 100 KT E. 038 DEG 004 NM F. 127 DEG 107 KT G. 034 DEG 003 NM H. 964 MB I. 10 C/ 3054 M J. 18 C/ 3031 M K. 8 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C10 N. 12345/07 O. 0.1/2 NM P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 09 MAX FL WIND 121 KT SE QUAD 1406Z.

The storm looks like it will hit the coast between Ft. Myers and Tampa. Here is an animated radar thru 1:27pm. My favorite Sw Florida islands appear to be directly in the path.

The center is almost inland near one of my favorite haunts, Captiva island. Winds are estimated at 145 mph and the pressure is 954mb (28.17 inches)

At 1833z, Charley's central pressure had dropped to 946mb ( ~27.80 inches). What an amazing intensification. The center is just offshore at 3:26pm. Wow!

Satellite Imagery and Movies

An early morning 08/13/04,0932) Visible Satellite Image of Hurricane Charley off the SW Florida coast

An early morning 08/13/04,1038am) Visible Satellite Image of Hurricane Charley off the SW Florida coast. As of 10:30am, Charley's cnetral pressure had dropped to 965mb.

A Visible Animated gif of Hurricane Charley thru 10:55am, 08/13/04. He seems to be getting even better organized. The eye passed directly over Dry Tortugas.

Charley's eye contracted to 8 nm by 1702z. Pressure dropped to 954mb (28.17 inches). Flight level winds are 141 knots while surface winds were estimated at 145mph. Wow! Visible Animated gif of Hurricane Charley thru 1:53pm, 08/13/04.

Charley's eye contracted to 6 nm by 326pm. Pressure dropped to 946mb (~27.80 inches). Flight level winds are 141 knots while surface winds were estimated at 145mph. The eastern eyewall went over Sannibel and Captiva islands as shown on thgis visible image.

Here is a spectacular Visible Animated Gif of the CDO and relentless motion towards the coast ending at 324pm. Pressure was now down to 943 mb (~27.75 inches).

Hurricane Charley moves straight up Charlotte Harbor with a central pressure bottoming out at 941 mb and a 5nm eye. Although a very small storm (hurricane force winds extended out only 25 miles from the center), the storm surge must have been significant (Visible Animated Gif, 08/13/04, thru 556pm.)

2003 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)

I start my archiving with Hurricane Claudette which went ashore on July 15, 2003 along the Texas coast. It could be a busy year in the Atlantic.

07/14/03--Claudette fights persistent SW shear but still manages to move her center underneath the concentrated central convection.
07/15/03--Claudette intensifies to Category 1 status just prior to striking the middle Texas coast. This early morning radar shows a storm getting its act together. Only a short time later, the eyewall crossed the Texas coast. Unconfirmed reports had the wind gusts of 104 mph. All she needed was a little more time to further intensify.
GOES Hot Stuff made a beautiful Quicktime Movie of Claudette as she moved inland along the Texas coast. Note the rapid intensification.

Fabian

08/31/03--Our first significant storm of the season. Fabian is very well organized with an eye embedded in a central, dense, overcast. Satellite estimates were a conservative 115 knots, estimated central pressure of 952mb. Here is visible image taken at 2045z.
09/1/03-Fabian has strengthened to a category 4 storm, central pressure 940mb and flight level winds of 133 kts. But, he looks a little "stretched-out' along a SW-NE axis to me on this visible 1115z image. Here is an animated gif of visible images for part of today. Recon found 140 kt flight level winds.
09/07/03--A MPG Infrared Video covering the track of Fabian as he hits Bermuda and moved northeastward into cooler waters. Bermuda reported wind gusts to 132 MPH as the eye moved just west of the island. At the end of the video, Tropical depression Henri can be found off the Carolina coast and newly formed Isabel was intensifying well east of the Windward islands.

Isabel

QUICKTIME Movie--Hurricane Isabel "Winds-Up" to a Category 5 Hurricane, 9/12/03 For a 9MB larger version, click here. For a smaller, streamed version, click here Note the dramatic intensification early in this 10 day movie followed by an amazing collapse of her inner core. North Carolina was very lucky! Here is an MPEG-4 Version of "10 Days of Isabel"

09/8/03--Isabel continued her rapid strengthening. Here is a visible image taken in the morning. Estimated intensity, 100 kts and 962 mb. The storm had an excellent satellite presentation. Very impressive! Here is a Visible Animated Gif of the days best images of this impressive storm.
09/09/03--Isabel rapid Scan VISIBLE Quicktime Movie, from GOES Hot stuff. Fantastic!
09/11/03--Isabel recahes category 5 status, 921 mb and 140 kt winds.
Check out this GOES 12 2015z visible image. Isabel is the first Atlantic category 5 storm since Hurricane Mitch in 1998. from the National Hurricane Center "DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. " Sure wish I had some Recon!
- What an amazing storm-- note the CDO in this beautiful 1145z image. The next 1145z Visible image has no latitude/longitude lines. I have included an animated Gif Isabel's afternoon intensification.
09/12/03--Isabel continues to maintain her intensity and amazing organization. Almost the entire storm (1315z) is Central Dense Overcast. Here she is at 1815z. Wow! Could there be an eye replacement cycle taking place? Outflow was very poor in the Northern quadrants of the storm. At 1902z, recon found a 920mb pressure and "MAX FL WIND 156 KT NE QUAD 1719Z. NICE STADIUM EFFECT."
09/12/03--Here is an amazing Isabel Visible Closeup (to 500m resolution). Look at the chaotic cloud formations in the center.
- Here is a 250 meter perspective (from Modis Rapid Response System/GSFC/NASA ) The MODIS images are ~1.3 and 3.4 MB in size.
- 09/12/03--Here is an AMAZING EYE CLOSE-UP showing cloud details.
- Hurricane Isabel GOES 12 Rapid Scans Quicktime Movie. From GOES Hot Stuff--"a movie made from occasional bursts of 8 images at one-minute intervals. Notice the mesocale swirls in the eye, particularly the 5-armed "starfish" cloud formation at the beginning of the sequence".
09/13/03--From NHNC "Isabel has completed an eyewall replacement cycle based on a 13/1102z SSMI overpass showing a closed 35 nmi diameter eye. The intensity is maintained at 130 kt based on continuity with the previous data...a consensus satellite intensity estimate of 127 kt...raw ODT values of t6.5...or 127 kt...and the fact that the eye has cleared out nicely and surrounding eyewall cloud tops have cooled to -70c and colder once again." Here is the " Five Day Forecast Map"
- An early morning visible image shows Isabel's remarkable organization. The forecast gossip--Isabel strikes late next week in the North Carolina/Virginia region. We'll see. Here are the latest Computer Model Forecasts.
09/14/03--A morning Water vapor Loop of Powerful Isabel as the reality sets in that the US coast is a prime target. The next IR loop enhances Isabel's cloud tops. Isable's outflow has markedly improved in all quadrants. The latest offcial NHC long range forecast brings the center up through Cheseapeake Bay on Sep. 18-19
- At 5:00pm, the NHC's discussion "the afternoon plethora of recon wind and pressure data indicate that Isabel remains barely below category 5 intensity. Air Force reserve hurricane hunters measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 150 kt...or 135 kt surface equivalent...in the northeast quadrant of the eyewall...while a NOAA hurricane hunter dropsonde report indicated 171 kt average winds in the lower 150 meters...or 139 surface wind equivalent. Based on this information...Isabel is being maintained at 135 kt. The outflow pattern remains very impressive and has continued to expand. " Here is a 1945z Thermal IR image and a fabulous water vapor thru 1938z animated gif movie Isabel continues to expand in outflow and coverage. The eye is about 45nm in diameter. Here is a beautiful 2015z Water Vapor View of the N. Atlantic.
09/15/03--Isabel, in early morning photos looks much less organized. Outflow is restricted in the west, and SW shear may be distorting her shape. It's the worst she's looked to date. Note that drier air has eroded her western eye wall. This animated IR gif shows the erosion of the W/NW eyewall.
- The storm is also less symmetrical and the once "perfect" eye has taken on a ragged appearence, as shown on this 1132z visible image. Pressure had climbed to 940mb. If this trend continues, Isabel will weaken to a Category 3 storm today. From the NHC 11:00am discussion: "satellite imagery indicates that the inner core structure continues to break down...with a less well-defined eye in visible imagery. Eyewall convection has become asymmetric and fragmented...and the overall convective structure is now more banded than it was over the past couple of days. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt. The advisory intensity is lowered to 120 kt and another reconnaissance aircraft will be in the hurricane at 18z.....There will be plenty of warm water under the hurricane until cooler shelf waters are encountered right along the coastline. One key to the ultimate landfall intensity will be the evolution of an upper-level trough that could enhance the outflow and reduce the shear prior to landfall if it digs as sharply as forecast by the GFS. With this in mind...Isabel could still be a major hurricane at landfall. "
- Isabel, at 1615z is in trouble as the inner-core has collapsed in the west and northwest quadrants. Wow! Will she recover?
- At 5:00pm, the NHC downgraded Isabel to a category 3. Compare yesterdays spectacular presentation (1755z on 9/14) with a 9/15/03 1530z ragged and beat storm. What a difference a day makes!
- 09/16/03--Isabel stated the day as a category 2 storm. Pressure had risen to 959mb. But, in the evening, she was beginning to get her act together again. Form the NHC "AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 11 MAX FL WIND 95 KT SE QUAD 1720Z. MUCH IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATI ON. SPIRAL BANDING EYEWALL. " Here is a 2200z IR image. Kind of makes you go hmmm.....
09/18/03--A Radar animated gif as Hurricane Isabel approaches the North Carolina coast, 957mb-28.26inches, max winds about 100mph. There is no true inner eye wall. Winds aloft are stronger--check out this NEXRAD radial velocity animated gif (max winds of 123 kts towards radar location). So far, these strong winds weren't mixing to the ground. At 1:00pm, "A wind gust to 105 mph was recently reported at Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks. Sustained winds to 80 mph have also been reported at Ocracoke. Cape Hatteras is reporting sustained winds of 79 mph and gusts to 98 mph. "
Here is a QUICKTIME Movie of Isabel entitled "10 Days of Isabel" from GOES Hot STUFF. Note the dramatic intensification early in the movie followed by an amazing collapse of her inner core. North Carolina was very lucky! Here is MUCH SMALLLER MPEG-4 Version of "10 Days of Isabel"

2002 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)

Until 09/19/02, I really had nothing of note to post on the 2002 Atlantic Hurrricane Tracking season. The season was absolutely pathetic (at least till Isidore came along!)

Isidore

Isidore has the potential to be the storm of 2002. We'll have to see though.

09/19/02--Isidore winds up in the NW Caribbean. Here is a visible image of the storm developing an eye at 1732z. This Animated GIF illustrates Isodore's strengthening and organization on the 19th.
09/20/02--This excellent Animated GIF (1315z) from the Univ of Hawaii was very interesting. The western Gulf of Mexico has an upper level low and surface cold front that will impact Isidore. But How? Long-range omputer models were all over the map! At 0900z, Isidore had a central pressure of 966 mb and sustained surface winds of about 90 knots. There is also an upper low to the NE in the Atlantic. Both lows will have an impact on Isidore's outflow.
- 09/20/02--Upper Level Winds at 1200z. Shear to the west of Isidore should begin to impact Isidore. Here is an upper level map of illustrating the extreme shear to the west and northwest of Isidore.
- 09/20/02--A Visible image at 1532z. Isidore is pretty tightly wound. The center appears to be just off the west tip of Cuba. The projected track at 1500z slows Isidore down and turns him more westward over 72 hours.
- 09/20/02--Note the subtle upper-level lows NE and West of Isidore 1515 UTC Fri 20 Sep 2002 on this animated gif. A Water Vapor loop of the Gulf of Mexico shows the approaching cold front and upper-level Gulf low in greater detail
- 09/20/02--A Quicktime Movie of a strengthening Isidore thru 1600z, from Plymouth College
09/21/02--Isidore moves off the Cuban coast towords the west to WSW. Isidore has been strengthening, with a pressure of 955mb. An eye was visible on these 1302z---1532z---1602z images. The most recent official track has Isidore moving parallel to the Yucatan coast then gently recurving.
- What will the future hold? Very warm waters lie ahead (86° F). This 1515 UTC Sat 21 Sep 2002 Animated GIF illustrates Isiodore's extremely tight inner core. Note the upper-level low to Isidore's west moving southward. Seems like it would help move Isidore more northward.
- Wind shear will not be an immediate problem for Isidore, but, may become more important as the storm moves cloer to Mexico and Texas. As shown on this map, Shear in the Western Gulf dropped dramatically.
- Rapid intensification? Yes. Here are the recon pressure reports over the 12 hour period from, roughly, 06Z Saturday to 18Z Saturday... 05:47Z - 967mb, 07:23Z - 964mb, 08:55Z - 961mb, 10:24Z - 959mb, 11:41Z - 957mb, 17:40Z - 947mb! That's 20mb in 12hrs. Isidore was over some of the warmest water in the Atlantic Basin at 30°C. A 2039z visible image! and an eight hour IR Animated Gif (thru 2015 UTC Sat 21 Sep 2002) followed by a Visible Animated GIF over the same time frame. Where will he go? and, how strong will he get? at 2200z, Isidore is at 110 knots. Here is a 2140z Visible Image. Note the "supercell" thunderstorm in the eastern eyewall.
09/22/02--Isidore pressure down to 934 mb, but the eye of Isidore was being disrupted (1402z) as he raked the northern Yucatan coast. A 1539z Visible Image. The eye was much larger now.

An Amazing Water Vapor loop of Isidore as he wobbled along the Yucatan coast. Note the impinging shear on his NW edge (1515 UTC Sun 22 Sep 2002). Huge Rainbands were in the NW Caribbean.

The latest Wind Shear Analysis (1220z) shows powerful winds moving NE along the Texas coast.Another 1220z Upper Level Wind Analysis. I conclude with a 24 hour Shear Tendency Analysis. Shear has diminished near the storm's center but increased along the northern Gulf coast. It's amazing to me how something so powerful is always on the verge of destruction!
Isidore's eye rakes the Yucatan peninsula as seen in this 2015 UTC Sun 22 Sep 2002 IR Animated GIFHere is a 2132z Visible Image of Isidore's Eyewall on the coast. The Projected track takes Isidore Northward towards Louisiana later in the week.

09/23/02--Isidore takes a dramatic turn southward onto the Yucatan. He has been downgraded to a tropical storm. While the forecast calls for Isidore to turn west, then north back over the open Gulf, there has been no indication that this was going to happen. It better happen soon, or Isidore is a "Goner"!

09/24/02--Isidore finally moves off the Yucatan coast into the northern Gulf. Note the total core collapse as evidenced by the lack of inner-core convection. But, he is beginning to get his act together. Note the new thunderstorms developing around his eye on this 1715 UTC Tue 24 Sep 2002 IR Animated GIF. As he moves further northward, rain bands will begin to wrap around his eye. The projected track takes the storm into the Louisiana coast as a category 1 hurricane.

09/26/02--isidore makes landfall in southern Louisisan near New Orleans, La. Isidore was getting his act together, and in fact, looked like he was on his way to another round of intensification when he ran into land! New Orleans may have had over 15 inches+ of rainfall! Check out the eye of Isidore as he moved just SE of New Orleans. Here is a surface map showing Isidore's pressure field. New Orleans was fortunate that Isidore was only a tropical storm at landfall. Had he been a Cat 3/4 hurricane, Isidore's path would have caused extensive devastation to the Crescent City. Radar Storm Totals for SE Louisiana are indeed impressive!

Watch out Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Look at all of that rain moving northward!

Lili

Lili initially followed in Isidore's footsteps across Western Cuba. Lili will be far more powerful than Isidore when she hits the Louisiana coast.

9/30/02--Lili gathers herself together SE of the Cuban coast.
10/01/02--Lili becomes stronger and was classifies as a Category 2 storm by 1600z. Here is a visible image at 1302z followed by an enhanced IR Animated GIF and Water Vapor Animated GIF as Lili moved off the Cuban coast. Her pressure was down to 970mb. The lastest projected path takes Lili inot the central Louisiana coast at 105 kts.

10/02-02--First Light. Lili looks very impressive on this early morming (1315z) visible image. Here she is at 1402z. Overnight, Lili's pressure dropped to 954 mb and winds were estimated at 110 mph. Here is an accompanying vortex message at 1309z with flight level winds of 125 knots. Lilli's organization was indeed impressive as seen on the 1415z visible image. Outstanding organization at 1602z. Pressure now down to 948 mb!

Lili's expected track takes her into the heart of Louisiana.
Lili has very impressive outflow in the east through SW quadrants as shown on this water vapor animated GIF through 1215 UTC Wed 02 Oct 2002
A very interesting forecast for Intercoastal City, La "Torrential rain and embedded thunderstorms. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph increasing to 110-130 mph with higher gusts...becoming south. Chance of rain near 100 percent." What a riot!!! WOW!
Lili upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane as pressure dropped to 941mb and flight winds increased to 131 knots. Here is a 1709z visible image of this impressive storm. Here is a GOES-8 Gulf of Mexico 8 km Water Vapor Loop at 1715 UTC Wed 02 Oct 2002. Here is a GOES-8 Gulf of Mexico 4 km Visible Loop at 1715 UTC Wed 02 Oct 2002.
Here is an amazing buoy report for Buoy 42001 located at 25.9N 89.7W Highlights: Sustained winds of 91 knots with gusts to 128 knots. Seas 33 feet. Wow!

10/3/02--Lili moves inland, a much weaker storm at 962 mb. As fast as she intensified yesterday, she fell apart today. Dry air, NE shear, collapse of outflow, cooler surface waters and an approaching trough seemed beat the hell out of her. Very stange indeed!

2001 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)

Allison--the first storm of the 2001 season--(6/4-6/17/01)

Allison,an early season storm, was a prodigous rain maker, dumping record rainfall totals in southern Texas and Louisiana. Damage estimates are in the billions of dollars. Severe thunderstorms, floods, and tornadoes killed about 41 people, 23 in Texas alone. Here are estimated rainfall totals for the Houston, Tx area on 06/09/01. The storm lasted more than 10 days! Up to 40 inches of rain fell in parts of Louisiana, 30-40 inches near Houston, Tx, and between 6-12 inches along the gulf coast to New England.

A very large (~36mb), but wonderful, illustrative quicktime movie of Allison's path along the gulf coast, then NE along the east coast of the US. Note the tight, persistent circulation and explosive thunderstorm development, particularly in the SE quadrant of the storm. From GOES Hot Stuff.

Barry--the second storm of the 2001 season--(birth date 8/2/01)

Barry developed from a long-lived tropical wave that slowed down and intensified in the Gulf of Mexico. Here is the National Hurricane center's projected track as of 8/2/01. Will Texas get hammered again? We will see! So for, intensification has been slow, but deliberate inspite of hostile upper level winds.

Barry surprised everyone and moved into the Florida panhandle as a stregthening system. Here is Barry's path as he approached the coast.

A very nice quicktime movie of Barry's intensification and Florida landfall from GOES Hot Stuff

Chantal--the third storm of the 2001 season--(birth date 8/16/01)

08/16/01--Initial intensity, about 35 knots, but progged to intensify due to extremely favorable environmental conditions (climatology says "no way"). Should be a "major player" as she moves into and through the Caribbean. Here is a Caribbean surface chart from OSU. Initial squally weather was approaching the Windward islands. Here is an initial projected track" from Monterey.

08/17/01-- Oops and Wow!! Chantal was downgraded to a tropical wave (last night) despite an excellent satellite presentation Even her upper level outflow is well developed. My guess is that she will be upgraded later today. Recon was unable to find a closed circulation despite all of their efforts. Gary Gray, of Millenium Weather fame, suggests that a circulation is there, but, due to its rapid westward movement, unable to be located. Here is an IR/surface map of the eastern Caribbean. Indeed, an impressive cloud mass. Another amazing early morning IR perspective We shall see!

08/17/01--Chantal gets her act together! Here is a Monterey Hi-Res Visible image (2115z)--Great outflow and intense centralized convection. Chantal's projected path takes her near the Yucatan Channel in a few days. The big question--will she threaten our Gulf Coast? Here is a large QUICKTIME movie of Chantal as she moves into the eastern caribbean.

08/18/01--Well, Chantal weakened this morning as the low-level center moved rapidly ahead of its convection and upper level center. The storm quite frankly looked like it might not be able to recover. Here is a satellite photo of the exposed center of circulation. Note that most of the convection is east of the center.

08/18/01-1715z--Chantal's convection was pulsating as shown by this 700k quicktime movie. A comeback perhaps? Recon reported a pressure of 1003mb. A visible 1845z satellite photo with superimposed winds. In this 2215z visible photo, thunderstorms appear to be wrapping around the circulation center.

08/19/01--Chantal radically slowed down to 10knots! She was most definitely poised for a "life change." Her organization was markedly improved as well. Note the "outflow" streaks. It also appears that the circulation center is more centrally located. Recon at 0604z found a 997mb pressure, max gusts 61 kts in north quad, and 27 C at 472m. The forecast track recurves Chantal northward after crossing the Yucatan. I think her recurvature will happen sooner. At 1200z, RECON found "MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 1123Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB. VERY BROAD...POORLY DEFINED CENTER, MULTIPLE SFC CENTERS FL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR OVER 40MILES" so,....the saga continues!

08/19/01--1715z--Chantal, despite early morning signs of becoming better organized, looked dramatically weaker this afternoon. In fact, it looks like shit to me. The center of circulation is again "far removed" from the convection. What a weird storm!
08/21/01--Chantal got it together (kinda), but only after having moved inland! A visible image of Chantal at her finest hour (so far).

Erin, Felix and Gabrielle

09/10/01--A spectacular image of a mature, well organized Erin from GOES Hot Stuff. Erin has been the most intense and well developed storm so far this season.

09/11/01--An amazing image of Hurricane Erin and the World Trade Center Complex Smoke Plumes from GOES Hot Stuff.

09/13/01--Three storms are active in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (long-lived Erin, Felix and a developing system in the Gulf of Mexico). Here is a Quicktime Movie (Thanks Plymouth State College!) that illustrates all systems. The projected track of depression #6, amazingly persistent Erin and an intensifying Felix, recurving harmlessly in the eastern Atlantic.

I'd say we have a tropical storm here based upon Gulf buoy and ship reports. Water temperatures were near 30 C and pressures were dropping. Upgraded to Gabrielle at 11:00am.
Erin shows up quite clearly on this western atlantic surface report map.
Felix looked pretty healthy in this afternoon visible image.

09/14/01--A strengthening Gabrielle moves inland near Tampa along the west Florida caost as shown by this animated radar gif. There seems to be a distinct center. Check out this Animation of Radial velocities as Gabrielle Moves Inland.

09/16/01--A beautiful image of Gabrielle and Felix in the Atlantic Ocean. From GOES Hot Stuff.

Humberto and Juliette

A very intense hurricane developed in the east Pacific (09/20-09/27). Juliette, at its strongest intensity (~923mb), was indeed impressive. Check out this animated IR enhanced gif. Wow! Here is a GOES 10 visible image (1445z, 9/25/01). Amazing CDO.

Iris!

10/07/01--Iris begins to get her act together just to the SW of Jamaica.

10/08/01--Iris dramatically intensifies into a very intense Category 4 storm as she moved through the west Caribbean Sea. Here is an amazing Enhanced IR Animated gif from the University of Hawaii. As always, GOES Hot Stuff pulls through with an excellent visible image of this impressive, tightly wound storm. Did you know that hurricane force winds extended outward only 15 miles from the center? Iris also, just prior to landfall, went through successive eyewall replacement cycles. At one time, she had three eyewalls! This small, intense storm had a land falling pressure of just over 950mb. Note the "pin-prick" size eye from the Univ of Wisconsin.

Check out these amazing visible images of Iris at 2202z and 2215z on 10/08/01. WOW! An extremely tight inner core.
CIMSS has some excellent JAVA animations of Iris as she rapidly intensified just prior to landfall. Iris' Upper wind flow resulted in high levels of divergence which probably stimulated her intensification.

Michelle--An Intense, Late Fall Hurricane

Hurricane Michelle rapidly developed in the NW Caribbean. By Saturday, 11/03/01, her pressure had dropped to 937mb and flight level winds were 128kts (1100z) as she meandered slowly northward. She was expected to reach peak intensity Saturday afternoon and gradually weaken as she begins to interact with a deepening upper-level trough. I don't think she'll ever make it to Florida, but she may be a category 4 storm when she hits Cuba.

11/03/01--An excellent enhanced Infrared animated gif of Michelle. Note the pin-prick size eye, dense CDO, and organization of this impressive storm. From the University of Hawaii
11/03/01--Here is excellent water vapor animated gif of Michelle. Can you see the trough digging eastward in the Gulf of Mexico? This changing upper-level wind pattern should kick Michelle eadtward.
11/03/01--A very impressive early morning (1325z) visible image of a compact, very intense late fall hurricane. Wow! Here is a Close-up of Michelle's central core. Impressive!
11/03/01--An excellent Carribean upper level wind shear map at 1200z. Note how Michelle, has moved noth of the lowest wind shear region. Very strong westerlies were just north of the storm and should protect Florida.
11/03/01--Upper Level Divergence was excellent at 1200z. No wonder Michelle has intensified so rapidly!
11/03/01--An excellent MPG movie of Michelle as she got her act togther over the NW Caribbean, from Plymouth College

11/04/01--Note in this excellent water vapor loop, how the upper level trough has taken over most of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level flow has also severely disrupted Michele. Pressure was up to 950mb and the eye is much less distinct. The projected track takes Michelle NE across Cuba and towards Andros island tomorrow in the Bahamas. What a difference a day makes!

11/04/01--Is there any wonder as to why Michelle is being "kicked-out" to the east? Check out this water vapor loop. Note the huge trough in the central US and the smaller disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

11/04/01----A fine MPG from Plymouth College records Michelle's easterly turn,the loss of a visible eye, and westerly shear associated with the Gulf trough.

11/05/01--A sheared Michelle moves Northeastward through the Bahamas. The low-level circulation was south of the storm's cloud mass. Nassau reported a peak wind gust of 92 mph. Upper-level divergence was still pronounced, but in this game, extreme shear wins out!

11/05/01--A beautiful MPG illustrates the power of upper level wind shear, much to Michelle's dismay.

QUICKTIME MOVIE--A final end-of-season testimony to Michelle's initial Intensification followed by extreme shear later in her life history. From GOES Hot Stuff.

2000 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives (Atlantic Tracking Map)

Alberto--the first storm of the 2000 season

August 4, 15:00 UTC. Infrared Image with Low Level Winds. Top winds, 40 mph, pressure 1005 mb. Wind shear was dropping as well near the storm. From UW-CIMSS
- Sea-Surface temperatures are pretty cool in the storms near-term future. But, Alberto will reach hurricane status shortly. He is a very well organized storm.
On 8/6/00, Alberto is a minimal hurricane with 70 knot winds and an estimated pressure of 29.18 in. This early morning 1115z visible image clearly illustrates the spiral bands surrounding the eye.
8/17-18-19/00--Alberto reaches peak intensity in the N Atlantic (mpg movie).
8/18-19-20/00-A MPG of Alberto, a sheared Chris and a developing Debby.
Hurricane Alberto's Long-lived Track!

Debby--the fourth storm of the 2000 season

8/19/00-Debby (IR image)gets her act together east of the Lesser Antilles. Here is a mpg movie showing her develop (8/17,18,19).
8/18-19-20/00-Debby (mpg movie) gets it together--40 mph while Chris decays and Alberto moves northward into the N. Atlantic. This water vapor image demonstrates her increasing organization.

Why the Late August-Early September Hurricane Seasons has, well, sucked. Note the very strong upper level trough which wrecked havoc on tropical system development and persistence due to strong wind shear. When will it go away?

FINALLY--Things Pick Up!

Huricane Keith

10/1/00- Keith edges ever so closer to the coastline in this IR image. Keith was a Category 4 storm, 942mb, at this time. Note the Dense CDO!
- Here is a Multi-spectral image from Monterey (10/01/00). Very Impressive Indeed! Here is an animated IR enhanced gif as Keith moves slowly westward. Here is a different perspective--a water vapor animated gif! This 200 mb map illustrates the upper air conditions over Keith on 10/01/00. A NOAA IR MPG movie of Keith. WOW! A classic, powerful organized tropical system.
- Outflow from Keith streams soutwestward across Central America.
A Plymouth College IR MPG movie showing Keith develop from 9/28-10/01. Keith intensified rapidly in a vey short time period.

1999 Hurricane & Typhoon Archives

Hurricane Lenny--the amazing "eastward moving" November Caribbean Storm

On 11/14/99, late season Lenny forms just SW of Jamaica. Lenny developed and eye in the mid-afternoon (19:15z, 992 mb, 65 mph). Surely, Lenny is stronger than his official stats.
11/15/99-The upper air environment over Lenny. Note the Strong Anticyclone over the Caribbean. Lenny doesn't look that impressive at 1445z(971 MB, 100 mph). In fact, he weakened later in the day.
11/16/99-Lenny is looking much more organized this morning-- reasonable outflow, a reforming eye(973MB, 100mph)--as he moves eastward. Lenny winds up at 2200z. Pressure had dropped to 962MB (28.44 inches, 115 mph). Note the tight core area. Wow! A Weather Channel Quicktime of Cat 3 Lenny as he approaches Puerto Rico, 2200z.
11/17/99- 0000z, 960MB, decent outflow, 119kt flight level winds. Wow! at 0900z, Lenny's pressure had dropped to 949MB (28.02 inches), sustained winds were 110kts, and he had developed a compact eye. Lenny is a stong CAT 3 storm. Here is a MPG movie thru 1015z from Plymouth College. Lenny is caught up in the westerlies. A 1141z San Juan Radar image. A 1215z enhanced IR, 948MB (27.99 inches) and 130kt flight level winds. A 1300z visible image of CAT 4 Lenny. An IR enhanced Loop from Intellicast thru 1300z. The inner core of Lenny looked like it would move along the southern coast St. Croix at 1332z. By 1400z, Lenny had developed a pinpoint eye just south of St. Croix. Winds were up to to 135 mph. The eye, and intense core, was just SW, 45 miles, of St. Croix at 1432z. Pressure had dropped to 942 MB...27.81 INCHES. REPORTS FROM A PLANE OF A MAXIMUM WIND OF 134 KNOTS AT 700 MB. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH A PEAK 7.0 RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER. At 1732z, Lenny was just south of St. Croix. Pressure had dropped to an amazing 933MB, 27.55 inches. Here is a visible animation of Lenny as he passed just south of St. Croix thru 1700z. Here is an amazing IR Enhanced Loop showing the evolution of a very powerful and compact central core. WOW! At 1902z the northern eyewall was over St. Croix--it looks like the inner core has been disrupted by the island. From the NHC" THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB HAS FALLEN TO 927 MB WHILE A DROP MEASURED 934 MB. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 149 KNOTS. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM DROPSONDES ARE 155 KNOTS AND PEAK WINDS REACHED 180 KNOTS AT THE 891-MB LEVEL A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO."
11/17/99--Lenny at 1800z.
11/17/99--An Amazing Radiosonde Plot of windspeed versus height Lenny's central pressure over time.From the National Hurricane Center.
11/18/99--Lenny meandered in the NE Caribbean on the 18th. He also had weakened to 952MB and the eye was much less defined at 1645z. Lenny's Upper Air support was still EXCELLENT--was upwelling causing the weakening?
Here is a SPECTACULAR Quicktime Movie of Lenny as he battered St. Croix! From GOES Hot Stuff.

Hurricane Jose

10/18/99 Jose forms in the Atlantic NE of the South American coast. Max winds-45mph, movement-WNW, pressure-1003mb.
10/20/99-Jose intensifies to 978mb with winds near 100mph. The intense core is near ANTIGUA in the NE Caribbean. A visible image at 13:45z. A NOAA GOES 8 Color Enhanced IR image shows Jose just prior to diminishing in intensity due to SW shear.

Hurricane Irene

10/14/99- Hurricane Irene (995mb-65kts) forms in the western caribbean. At 1400z, Irene was just south of western Cuba. She was intensifying as she moved north. A radar perspective from Key West. This IR movie illustrates her development on the 13th and 14th. Images from Weathertap and CIMSS.
10/15/99-Hurricane Irene emerges into the Florida Straits. While Irene's organization leaves something to be desired (as shown on this Key west radar sequence), her cloud tops are at an incredible -89C. She was an amazing rainmaker as shown on this hi-resolution thermal IR at 1000z.
- Irene's eye moves very close to Key West at 1200z. Big Pine Key reported a wind gust to 103 mph.
- This radial velocity radar sequence illustrated the location of the center of circulation at 1200z.
- Irene's precipitation totals, 1200z. A CIMSS enhanced IR quicktime movie illustrates the convective blossoming!
- An AMAZING NEXRAD radial velocity sequence of the circulation of Irene at 1245z. Note the spiral banding centered near Key West on this zoomed (2X) radial velocity sequence. Irene developed a very cold CDO (but she still had a poorly organized inner core) at 1423z.
- A really cool NEXRAD radar composite of Irene thru 1800z, 982mb-29.00 inches. Irene still had incredibly cold Cloud Tops at 1715z. Here is a Weather Channel perspective of Irene at 1637z. WOW, such cold cloud tops (enhanced thermal IR animation thru 1800z). Pretty decent outlow too. For being such a weak storm, Irene sure has an impressive satellite image--she just ran out of real estate. A very impressive storm indeed!
- Can you spot the eye in this NEXRAD Doppler animation thru 2300z? This composite animated NEXRAD illustrates the intense rainfall as the center moved across southern Florida.
10/16/99-An amazing Irene holds together as her eye moves NNE just NW of Miami, Fl. In fact, she looks more organized here than when she moved over Key West! (radar animation thru 0200z 10/16/99)
The path of Irene across Cuba and southern Florida.
10/17/99-Irene lost much of its punch late on the 16th and early on the 17th. However, Central Core Convection (See Enhanced IR Image) was on the increase by 1815z, when pressure had dropped to 978mb (28.88in). (See CIMSS' Enhanced IR Movie for a renewed "blossoming" of the CDO-Bad news for the Carolinas?)
- Irene makes her move AWAY from the N carolina coast at 2200z She is much better organized than earlier today. Is she trying to form an eyewall in these warm Gulf Stream waters? The answer is a definite YES. (NEXRAD Radar Animations)
- N Carolina Precipitation totals thru 2200z.
10/18/99-Irene gets the last laugh! While speeding to the NE, she intensifies to 958mb (28.29 inches). Back to the Tight CDO. Recon reported 900 mb winds of 129kts! Wow! Tropical storm Jose forms just to the west of the Caribbean.

A Wonderful 3 day Hurricane Irene QUICKTIME Movie. Note the Dramatic intensification as she sped to the NE. From GOES Hot Stuff.

Hurricane Floyd--(His 1999 Path)

9/10+9/11-A water vapor image of an intensifying Floyd-962mb,105 mph on 9/11/99. A NOAA water loop illustrates a developing Floyd. Here is an IR image from Plymouth College.
- This water vapor loop illustrates the the strong trough to Floyd's west. Will he strike the US mainland or recurve out to sea?
9/12/99- Floyd, after a rough, sheared Saturday where his central pressure rose to 967mb, really winds up. By 1200z, (2mb quicktime)Floyd was down to 955mb and his center was located beneath his CDO. Floyd is a cat 3 storm. Plymouth College contributed this excellent three day(9/9-9/12) movie of Floyd. Wow! Will the next trough over the US just east of the Rockies pick Floyd up and cause him to recurve east of the coast?
- By 2200z, Floyd's central pressure had dropped to 932mb-27.52 in, a 28mb drop in 12 hours. A Monterey visible image and a Plymouth IR shows the impressive storm Cat 4 storm. This mpg movie movie from Plymouth College shows the storm bearing down on the northern Bahamas. Here ia an amazing Hi-res Thermal IR, 2200z. Floyd has developed into a very intense and well organized storm. This is a "classic storm" by all definitions. Recon reports a "stadium effect," all quads in the 30nm wide eye, MAX FL WIND 140 KT NE QUAD 2314Z. Where will he go? WIll he become a Cat 5 storm?
9/13/99-Floyd's pressure dropped to 922mb, 27.23in, at 0800z. A dropsonde reported winds of 168kts! This Hi-res Thermal IR, thru 1030z, shows that Floyd's central structure has become less well defined than earlier. Floyd was transgressing a 32C warm core eddy. I think Floyd has jogged to the north a bit.
- A NOAA water Vapor Loop show Floyd bearing down on San Salvador, thru 0915z. Note the erosion on the western edge. I think the deep trough over the central US will spare Florida. Here is an excellent 3 day IR movie of Floyd's history from Plymouth College thru 1015z.
- An enhanced IR from CIMSS thru 1015z. It's all there! At 1200z, the pressure was down to 921mb, 27.20in. The storm was bearing down on San Salvador, Bahamas. I love the people and the island--I have worked and taught on San Sal for 11 years. I think the eye will go north of them, I hope. Here is a 1200z Visible image of Floyd, (2) 1315z; (3)1432z; (4)1600z; (5)1658z ;(6)1918z San Salvador is due west of the eye. A Hi Res Thermal IR, thru 1325z, demonstrates the remarkable erosion of the western eye wall CDO. How could it still be intensifying? The trough to Floyd's west was probably eroding the western side of the storm.
- Recon reported gusts to 190mph! A 1145 enhanced IR movie from CIMSS. Another Plymouth College "History of Floyd" movie IR update thru 1415z.
- Not good for San Salvador: Floyd appears to be redeveloping his CDO on the western side of the eye as this Hi Res IR animation thru 1645z shows. Hi res visible image at 1658z; 1745z water vapor; 1918z San Salvador is due west of the eye. Pressure was 926mb. The eye wall will impact San Salvador in less than 5 hours.
- A Hi-Resolution IR animation thru 2241z. This water vapor quicktime movie, thru 2145z, shows Floyd as he begins his slow turn to the north,922mb-155mph.

Spectacular Visible and Enhanced IR Imagery as the eyewall rakes my favorite island, San Salvador Here is a spectacular 9/12-9/14 quicktime movie of Floyd as he approached the Bahamas. From GOES Hot Stuff
9/13/99-Universal Time 9/14/99-Universal Time

1920z San Salvador is due west of the eye Intellicast IR Loop illustrating the eyewall passage near San Salvador, thru 0000z. San Salvador is getting hammered.

Enhanced IR says it all, 2215z San Salvador is in the intense inner core region Enhanced IR(9/14/99-0000z)

2245z, even closer Enhanced IR(9/14/99-0045z)

Enhanced IR 2315z Floyd 3 day IR (LARGE) movie from Plymouth College

Enhanced IR 2345z Enhanced IR(9/14/99-0115z)

Hi-Resolution IR animation thru 2241z. Enhanced IR(9/14/99-0145z)

914-9/15/99-A cool NEXRAD radial velocity animation of Floyd from the Melborne NEXRAD radar at 0900z. The eye is also clearly visible in this earlier animation.
- Floyd, at 1115z, seems to be getting slightly better organized in this enhanced IR image as he moves northward into the Gulf Stream. This hi res visible image, 1225z, still shows a ragged eys and a much less compact strom than a day before. Pressure was up to 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. He is still a potent storm though as shown on this hi res thermal infrared.
- The eye of Floyd rakes Eleuthera Island (1247z). Fantastic!
- Floyd has been steadily losing strength as he approached the Carolina coasts. Pressure had risen to 949mb-28.02 inches by 2100z. Deep convection was diminishing rapidly. This trend continued till landfall.
- Interesting movies and stills from the "Hurricane Hunters." The first movie in the eye of Floyd. The second movie, a radar sweep of the eye of Floyd. Here is a photograph within the Eye of Floyd. Here is a spectacular radar image of the eye. Here is an image of the Sea Surface Temperatures along the path of Floyd.
- Meanwhile, Gert reached a strong Cat 5 status in the eastern Atlantic.

Hurricanes Dennis and Cindy

On 8/27/99, three systems were active in the Atlantic. Only one of the "threesome" threatened the US, Dennis.
- Dennis finally begins to get his act together just north of San Salvador on the morning of 8/27/99. The center is underneath the CDO in this visible image.
- This split window Anim GIF illustrates the intense convection near the center and the well developed outflow in the NE thru S quads of the storm on 8/27/99 13:59z. Pressure 988mb and falling. The westerly shear on the west side of the storm is diminishing.
- Dennis develops a ragged eye on 8/27/99, 1900z while just east of the Bahamas.
- Dennis gets its act together--pressure has dropped to 980mb, 8/27/99, 2400z.
Dennis continues to intensify as he moves away from the Bahamas on 8/28/99.
- A closed eyewall is forming as pressure dropped to 972mb on 8/28/99, 1430z. Nice Picture. Here is a beautiful visible image of Dennis, Cindy and Emily at 1400z. Emily is being absorbed by Cindy's circulation. Dennis' pressure has dropped 20mb in 24 hours. RECON JUST MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 100 KNOTS AT 400 METERS ELEVATION. DENNIS MAY BE INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN INDICATED.
- This water vapor movie illustrates the two troughs which will dictate the future path of Dennis. Note the impressive structure of Hurricane Cindy. Her eye was 35nm in diameter. Emily is being sheared and absorbed by Cindy. From Univ of Wisconsin.
- A fantastic visble image of Dennis and Cindy, 1745z. Dennis does not have a well-organized inner core.
- A NOAA Visible Movie of Cat 2 Dennis-969mb and Cat 4 Cindy, thru 1945z.

8/29/99-Hurricane Dennis moves Northward east of Jacksonville, Fla. Pressure-969mb and winds-90kts. The central core was still not well developed.
- Animated Gif-At 1931z, Dennis's inner core was getting better organized as thunderstroms wrapped around the eye. Dennis was also turning towards the NE.
- The 1928z high resolution visible image illustrates the improvement in organization as the eye contracts-pressure 967mb.
- A 1945z Monterey Water Vapor image. Note the strong trough moving southward along the east coast. This trough can be easily seen in this water vapor movie from the Univ of Wisconsin.
- An enhanced IR at 1945z showing Dennis' ragged eye.
- Dennis's inner core can't seem to hold together for long--almost, but not quite! Hi-Res Thermal IR Animated Gif thru 2030z.
- Dennis' eye has dramatically contracted--he seems to be getting better organized. Hi-Res Thermal IR Animated Gif thru 2300z, 965mb.
- I say Dennis has made its move to the NE. The Carolinas will be spared. What do you think? Hi-Res Thermal IR Animated Gif thru 0100z, 964mb, 35nm diameter eye. Dennis seems to be "getting it together."

8/30/99 thru 9/4/99-Dennis' path parallels the North Carolina coast. Here is an animated NEXRAD radar, thru 1200z. Dennis has certainly been caught up in the east coast trough.
- Dennis weakens as cold air is entrained into the system just off the NC coast (Hi-Res Thermal IR Animated Gif 9/1/99)
- Dennis seems to be holding its own and is forecast to reintenisfy as it drifts towards the WSW over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. (Hi-Res Thermal IR Animated Gif 9/2/99)
- Dennis looks fairly well organized on 9/3/99, 1300z. Will he come back? This Hi-res Thermal IR sugggests an intensification of his central core area.
- An absolutely BEAUTIFUL color Quicktime movie from NASA of Dennis' travels over the last week. From GOES Hot Stuff.
  - A Spectacular Hi Resolution Quicktime Movie of Dennis as he intensifies just east of the Bahamas. Note the explosive convection rotating around the center. WOW!
- Dennis gets better organized on this high res visible image, 9/4/99-1700z.
- A wonderful Water Vapor Movie of the life histories of Dennis and Cindy. (9/7-9/1699). Watch as Cindy was absorbed by an extratropical low! From NRL Monterey.

Hurricane Bret

Bret developed hints of an "eye" in the SW Gulf of Mexico on 8/20/99 2032Z while still officially a tropical storm!
A Water Vapor image shows a dry, cool airmass approaching the Gulf coast at 2015z.
Bret develops a well defined eye, 20 nm in diameter, as he winds up about 200 miles southeast of Brownsville, Tx on 8/21/99 at 16:01z. Pressure was down to 976mb and max flight winds were at 101 kts. Check out the beautiful CDO in this intensifying storm! Pressure at 23:45z, 965mb!
At 0247z, 8/22/99, Bret's central pressure dropped to 953mb. Bret had become a very well defined storm.WINDS OF 149 KNOTS WERE MEASURED AT 888 MB by Recon. Wow!! Here is an Intellicast Radar Loop till 0300z 8/22/99. He was becoming less symmetrical.
Bret, Cindy and a soon to be named "no-name disturbance" dominate the Atlantic late on 8/21/99.
A NEXRAD animated gif as Bret approaches the Texas coast on 8/22/99 (am). Pressure had dropped to 943mb. Here is a "radial velocity" NEXRAD image. WOW!
By Sunday afternoon (2/22/99-2000z), Bret's eyewall was approaching the coast. Amazing! This Nexrad Radial Velocity Image shows some amazing wind velocities earlier in the day. A NRL Water Vapor Movie shows Bret head inland. A beautiful visible image from NRL Monterey. Nice Eye!
A Beautiful Visible Image of Bret as the eye crosses Padre Island. A visible loop. From Intellicast.
A visible image of Bret as he crosses the Texas coastline. From NOAA.
Rainfall storm totals for Bret were amazing as shown in this NEXRAD radar image from WeatherTap.
An enhanced infrared movie of Bret's journey. From NOAA's "Hurricanes and Special Events" Page.
GOES Hot Stuff does it again! An absolutely stunning quicktime movie of the eye passage of Bret across the barrier islands along the southern Texas coast!

Archives: 1999 East Pacific and Other Locations

10/28/99-Tropical Cyclone 05B moves NW in the Bay of Bengal. Note the CDO. Top winds 140 kts! Wow! I hope it weakens before hitting the coast. Low level winds and satellite photo at 1200z (from CIMSS) A Quicktime Movie illustrates some of the damage as the cyclone moves inland.
Quicktime Movie: Hurricanes Dora and Eugene Gather Strength in the Eastern Pacific. Note the Ridge to their north and the well defined eyes as they move just south of due west. Strengths were near 100 kts. NRL Monterey Water Vapor Movie, 8/9/99.
- Dora continues to intensify while Eugene begins to show the effects of shear on 8/10/99. The southwesterly wind shear has dramatically altered Eugene's structure. Dora seems to be in an ideal upper level environment. From NRL Monterey Satellite Meteorology
- A spectacular Visible Image of Dora on 8/12/99 2100Z. Note the Central Dense Overcast and spectacular 20 nm eye. Here is another beauty a few hours later! Winds were estimated at 120 kts with a TAFB AND SAB classification of 6.5. The eye is surrounded by -70 C cloud tops.
Cyclone Vance, a Category 5 storm, approaches the NW Australian coast in late March. There has never been a category 5 storm in Australia's recorded history.

1998 Hurricanes & Typhoons

Special! A Chronology of Category 5 Hurricane Mitch

Ah! October is the month of beautiful seasonal change. Leaves change color and drop as the northern hemisphere prepares for winter. Occasionally, a tropical system develops that turns out to be very impressive despite seasonal changes which lurk just north of a system. Hurricane Mitch rapidly intensified on Saturday, Oct. 24 in the western Caribbean--pressures dropped about 27 millibars in 13 hours, 49 mb in 22 hours! Yet, the best was yet to come!

You'll need Apple's Quicktime to view these movies.
A Monterey water vapor movie illustrates the rapid organization on 10/24/98. This CIMSS IR movie does the same thing--notice how we rapidly see a very ragged storm develop a well defined eye. Wow, explosive deepening! Note also the dynamic state of our northern hemisphere atmosphere. Here is a Monterey NRL water vapor movie on 10/25/98 which illustrates the explosive deepening as shown on Sunday morning. Note the trough to Mitch's NE and the high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds on 10/25/98 approached 125 kts at flight level as pressures dropped to 942 millibars (27.81 inches).The upper level synoptic situation was excellent on 10/25/98. What will the future hold? At 1715Z, 10/25/98, recon reported a central pressure of 929 mb (27.43 inches), and a well defined and solid eyewall with an 18 nm diameter eye. Flight level winds were up to 138 kts in the NW quad. This water vapor movie from Monterey NRL provides another sobering perspective. At 1903Z Mitch's central pressure had dropped to remarkable 924 mb (27.29 inches). Maximum flight level winds in the NE eyewall were 155 kts. This visible image was taken at 1915z. Absolutely amazing! Here Mitch is 2 1/2 hours later at 2145z, 10/25/98. Mitch's pressure had dropped from 973 mb on 10/24/98 at 0000z to 924 mb less than 24 hours later. Amazing! Here is a map of the upper level wind shear over and near Mitch. From CIMSS, 10/25/98 2100z. Early in the am on 10/26/98, recon reported a central pressure of 923 mb. This quicktime water vapor movie illustrates the increase in organization and intensity. As Darth Vader would say "Impressive!" Here is an amazing early morning 10/26/98 1215z visible image. Check this out- NASA generated a spectacular 1315z 3D image of Mitch. Note the convective activity off the coast of Nicaragua which generated devestating rains. Here he was at 1445z, wow! The big question? Will Mitch reach category 5 status? Here is the latest 200 mb map and wind streamlines for 10/26/98. As you can see, there was a well established outflow over the storm. Mitch reaches Cat 5 status! Recon reported, 1900z 10/26/98, a central pressure of 905 mb (26.72 inches), maximum flight level winds of 168 kts and a surface wind (500 feet above the ocean surface) of 173 kts. Here is a quicktime water vapor movie through 1915z from Monterrey NRL and a 1915z visible image from the University of Washington and a 2115z spectacular visible image from NRL. NOAA generated a fantastic false color image of Mitch at 1815z and a beautiful visible image at 2115z. Here is Mitch from the NHC perspective. Mitch joined the ranks of 1988 Gilbert-888 mb,the unnamed 1935 Keys storm-892 mb, 1980 Allen-899 mb, and 1969 Camille-905 mb, which struck the Mississippi Gulf coast at full category 5 strength. An IR movie (through 0715z 10/27/98) of Mitch (from Monterrey NRL). NOAA put together a nice quicktime movie of Mitch before he weakened. Satellite transmissions were interrupted later for most of the day. Note the strong westerlies just to his north. Recon at 0815z 10/27/98 reported that the central pressure had risen to 917 mb (27.07 inches). What a difference a day makes! Mitch weakened considerably as his center meandered near the northern HONDURAS coast. Pressure rose to 948 mb (near 28.00 inches) and maximum flight level winds dropped to about 100 kts. This 10/28/98 1545 z water vapor image shows the dramatic weakening trend--upwelling and the rugged mountains of Honduras have taken their toll. Where will he go next? Look at the 72 hour NOGAPS forecast. Hmmm! On 10/29/98, Mitch was only a shadow of its former strength. At 1130z, recon found that the central pressure had risen to 987 mb (29.15 inches). As this 1715z water vapor image and 1845z visible image illustrate, Mitch was being hammered by its proximity to the Honduras coast and that country's high mountains. I have included the 0000z 10/29/98 Aviation model 300 mb analysis. I think Mitch has had it! An enhanced IR Quicktime (a whopping 32 mb!) movie of Hurricane Mitch covering 10/23/99-10/30/99. I also made a Smaller Quicktime Version! From CIMSS. Mitch rememerged in the Gulf of Mexico, moved across the Yucatan peninsula and impacted Florida as a strong tropical/extratropical hybrid storm before moving off into the Atlantic. Here is a map of Mitch's long and convoluted storm track. As of 11/8/98, there are estimates of over 13,000 people killed in Central America, mostly from mud slides and river flooding. Absolutely unbelievable. Sometimes I forget about the impact of extreme weather phenomena on people. Satellite image sources include CIMSS, NRL Monterey, NASA and NOAA

A Quicktime Water Vapor movie of Super Typhoon Zeb on Oct. 13, 1998. Zeb was approaching the Phillipines and expected to soon recurve towards the north. Category 5 Zeb had sustained winds of 155 kts with gusts to 190 kts. This visible image illustrates the CDO and well developed eye. This enhanced IR is even more impressive. All images are from CIMSS.
A Quicktime Enhanced IR Movie~3.4 mb of Hurricane Georges and newly formed Tropical Storm Hermine (in the Gulf of Mexico) on Sep. 19, 1998. I have a smaller (~200k) enhanced version as well. Both are from CIMSS.
- Check out this absolutely fantastic visible image of Georges on 9/19/98. He has a very well defined eye, and outflow pattern. Perhaps most interestingly, the ocean surface is visible as well! Wow!!! His estimated intensity was 948 mb and 110 kts!. From Monterey NRL.
- An IR Movie of Georges as he intensifies on 9/19/98. Georges reached Cat 4 status later that day at 938mb and 130 kts. Recon reported a flight level wind of 166 kts! Note the developing eye!
- A spectacular visible shot from NRL Monterey of Hurricane Georges eye traversing the eastern coast of Hispanola on 09/22/98. After having struck Puerto Rico, Georges reintensified while crossing the Mona Passage. Recon found winds of 117 kts and a pressure near 960 mb. Holy horse!!
- Wow!! An amazing quicktime movie (~3.5 mb) of Georges as he approached and moved away from the Florida Keys on 09/25/98. From GOES Hot Stuff!
- A CNN quicktime movie of Post-landfall Flooding from Georges' Torrential Rains along the Gulf coast.
Hurricane Bonnie (Quicktime mov--8/25/98) approaches N Carolina From GOES Hot Stuff See NASA's Hurricane Bonnie Page
Great Images & Hurricane Archives: (Univ of Wisconsin)
- Hurricane Howard, 08/26/98, with an absolutely "huge" eye, makes his way across the east pacific.
A MPG water vapor movie (388 K) of Stalled, Category 3 Hurricane Bonnie on 08/23/98, 10:00am. Note the upper level trough just to her north and the ridge to her west. Where will she go? From NRL Monterey Satellite Meteorology Note the cooler water, upwelled to the surface, in Bonnie's wake! From Univ of Miami-RSMAS

Movies and Image Archives: Previous Years (Continued!)

Hurricane Movies (From NASA--The Best Collection of quicktime and mpeg movies I've Ever Seen!)
- Hurricane Andrew (1992) Time Series Movie by Nathan Gasser, NASA Movie Collection
  - A CNN video of Hurricane Andrew as he crossed the southern peninusla of Florida in August, 1992.
- Huricane Luis, 1995 (Stunning EYE-3.8 MB Quicktime)
  - Hurricane Luis (MPG Wide View 2.7 MB MPEG)
  - Hurricane Luis (Quicktime Wide View 2.7 MB MPEG)
  - Hurricane Luis (1995) (~ 12 MB of Spectacular Quicktime Movie--One whole day's worth!)
  - An Outstanding High Resolution Visible Image of Luis.
- Hurricane Marilyn (Explosive Eyewall Thunderstorms 2.5 MB MPEG)
- Hurricane Marilyn, 1995 (8.4 MB Quicktime:Worth the Wait)
- The 1995 Atlantic season was absolutely spectacular! This 10 mb quicktime movie illustrates a parade of storms across the Atlantic! (From Univ of Wisconsin)
- Hurricane Opal, a 1995 late season Gulf hurricane, struck the Florida Panhandle after weakening to category 3 status. Note the strong shear to her NW. Opal briefly flirted with category 5 status in the south-central Gulf. This next quicktime shows some wave action along the Florida coast. From CNN.
- NOAA Detailed Report of Hurricane Danny, 1997
  - Beautiful Visible MPEG Movie of 1997 Hurricane Danny Here is an enhanced IR movie of Danny (From NOAA)
Quicktime Movie: Cat 5 Hurricane Camille slammed into the Mississippi Gulf Coast in Aug.,'69. Note the horse on a roof! From Discovery
Quicktime Movie: The 1900 Galveston Hurricane killed at least 6000 people. From Discovery
A Stunning Movie of Hurricane Guillermo, 1997. Made by Mark Sutton, morphing helps "fill in the data gaps" of the GOES 9 satellite. From the NASA Movie Catalog.
1996 Atlantic Tropical Storms (In-Depth Discussions) & Views from the NOAA Satellites
- Hurricane Fran Vis Quicktime (From NOAA)
- A CNN quicktime of the Wind and Rain from Hurricane Fran.
- Hurricane Fran Enhanced IR Sep 5, 1996 as it approaches the Carolina coastline.
  - North Carolina Hit By Frantastic Storm! Excellent NOAA Report on the Damage of Fran
- Hurricane Bertha was not as intense as Fran, but still had interesting thunderstorm development around the eye as it approached the Carolina coastline.
- A CNN quicktime movie of the strong winds associated with Bertha's Landfall.>
- Visit Raleigh, NC WRAL Channel 5's excellent Hurricane Fran Web Page. Here is a Quicktime Sample of the many movies and images of Hurricane Fran.
SuperTyphoon Herb (1996), Enhanced IR Quicktime Movie. Watch the eye "wobble" towards Tawain!
Typhoon Winnie, a west pacific storm, wobbles towards China in August, 1997. (From NOAA)
Hurricane Eduoard VIS Quicktime Movie (From NOAA )
NOAA / National Climatic Data Center Archive of Images/Movies of Hurricanes and Special Events.
- Hurricane Erika IR MPG, Sep 8, 1997. Excellent eye development!
- Here is a Compilation of Spectacular Hurricane Linda '97 images.
Millenium Weather Models & Other Neat Stuff
Colorado State University (Dr. Gray works Here-Need I Say More?)
The effect of Hurricane Lili on San Salvador Island, 1996 (An excellent overview of Lili: Authored by John Garver, Geology Dept , Union College, New York)
- False color map of the island showing damage locations
NOAA Billion Dollar Weather Disasters

Predictive Forecasting Tools, Wind Shear Maps & Sea Surface Temperatures

Hurricane Genesis Predictive Tool (Interesting Forecasting Maps)
Wind Shear Map (West Pacific Ocean: Look for <10 m/sec Impt For Hurricane Development)
Wind Shear Map (Atlantic Ocean: Look for <10 m/sec)
Sea Surface Temperatures