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Question:
Is there a reason some cities have higher birthrates then others? Can a correlation be drawn between birthrate and issues related to the environment? Our group originally wondered if starry nights had higher conception rates verses clear nights and then we wondered if people who lived in warmer environments were more likely to have higher rates. We thought that it might have to do with people being happier in warmer sunnier climates. These questions interested our group and we wanted to find out if we could determine if climate played in birthrate. For our research we wanted to study the possible effect of birthrate in American cities only. We were interested in finding out if we could draw any correlations between birthrate and climate. We realized that there would be many different factors that play a key in the birthrate numbers. To try and best control our samples we will use cities with similar populations and only focus in on one age grouping. Things like the amount of women in the work force, birth control usage and similar issues will come into play but we will attempt like to focus on the factors related to the environment more. We feel that we can create a study that will attempt to focus in on environmental issues that affect the birthrate as much as possible. Factors such as the effects of longitude and latitude, climate, and seasons will be the variables that will be focused in on.

Hypothesis:
Our prediction is that areas in latitudes with warmer climates will have higher birthrates then areas that have colder climates. We believe that the higher birthrate is attributed to climate, in a sense saying the warmer climate makes people happier and allows them to reproduce at a higher rate then people who live in the colder climates.

Introduction and Background Information:

For our student generated lab our group decided to do a project that some might consider a bit abstract. Who really considers what factors play a role in the increasing population anyway? Well, after having sifted through work from like-minded persons, we have found that there are quite a few. Most reports seem to focus only on sexually transmitted diseases and birth control as factors in changing birthrates. These seem to be the same researchers who are concerned primarily with percentage or teenage mothers. Some articles focus on factors much more closely related to our hypothesis, effects f climate and other more natural changes, but most of these are not specific to the United States, as our project will be. Still other studies attribute any changes in birthrate over time to education, money, or age of mothers. Some studies are from other countries or many different regions, which gives us an idea about how different regions consider factors of birth rate. With so many factors to consider, it is necessary for us, as it was for our fellow researches, to narrow down their field of vision. This explains the numerous differing projects concerning population.
Most people would agree that the growing number of teen pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases is a serious problem. Much of our research was concerned with this matter, but we are happy to report that according to, ÒUnderstanding U.S. Fertility: Continuity and Change in the National Survey of Family GrowthÓ by William D. Mosher, "concern with the AIDS epidemic led to increases in condom use between 1982 and 1990." Even teen pregnancy rates were falling during the 90's, as stated in, ÒU.S. Births Rise for First Time in Eight Years; Births to Teenagers Still Falling,Ó by B. Brown. And of the pregnancies that remained were told that they were healthier, overall, US Birthrates Continued to Fall in 1993 ÒIncluding Rates Among Adolescents,Ó from The Alan Guttmacher Institute, says "The birthrates for teenagers and for women in their 20s declined, while the birthrates for women in their 30s increased. While overall nonmarital fertility remained constant, rates declined among black women and rose among white women. Several factors related to healthy birth outcomes showed improvement in 1993 --the degree of tobacco use among pregnant women and the proportion of women utilizing prenatal care -- while others deteriorated -- the percentage of babies born preterm and at low birth weight." Which leads us into factors of race and age.
Race, age, wealth, education, and income are all considered factors in birthrates by the articles we researched. With regards to age, the studies show that there is a rise in the average age of first-time mothers, which is the topic of these and many other articles, ÒAmong Women Over 30, Rate of First Births Rose Strongly with EducationÓ, by P. Rind and ÒRecent U.S. Fertility Patterns Continue: Birthrates Climb Among Older Women, Childlessness RisesÓ (in Digest) and ÒMore U.S. Women are Deferring First Birth Till Their Mid- or Late 30sÓ (in digest). This may be because of the trend of later marriages according to, ÒThe U.S. Fertility Decline, 1961-1975: The Contribution of Changes in Marital Status and Marital FertilityÓ by Campbell Gibson. Whether or not the mother can support her child should obviously be a factor, as addressed by Lee-Jay Cho in, ÒIncome and Differentials in Current Fertility.Ó Ò[W]omen in the labor force are less fertile than women not in the labor force, the author finds three differentials in fertility by income. This paper demonstrates, then, that the traditional inverse relationship between income and birth rates no longer holds among whites, and that even among Negroes, the previously well-established inverse relationship seems to be heading toward some modification. Finally, fertility differences for both whites and Negroes are smaller in urban than in rural areas," says Cho, also addressing the issue of race.
Some of the only articles that seemed to address the issue of climate as a factor on birthrate were mostly centered on a global scale. Few articles focused on United States. However, many included specific regions, ÒLow Fertility in Europe: A Report from the 1981 IUSSP MeetingÓ (in Special Report), by Deirdre Wulf, ÒMexico's Experience Shows That Economic and Social Development Do Not Automatically Result in Slowing Rapid Population Growth,Ó (in Digest), ÒSeasonal Variation in Conception in Rural Uganda and Mexico,Ó by Richard W. Thompson; Michael C. Robbins, and ÒHalf of Nicaraguan Women Use Contraceptives, Yet Birthrates Remain High,Ó by L. Remez, which allows us a view of the wide-spread use of contraceptives and their effectiveness. Some researches chose to focus on a wide-spread or global scale, focusing sometimes on a few different areas at once. The articles, ÒThe Ingredients of Recent Fertility Decline in Developing Countries,Ó by Phillips Cutright, ÒPublic Health Consequences of Global Climate Change in the United States-- Some Regions May Suffer Disproportionately,Ó by Janice Longstreth which states that, "seven possible (health effects that might increase worldwide with global climate change): heat stress, insect- and animal-borne disease, respiratory disease, allergic disease related to environmental allergens, developmental effects, i.e., perinatal mortality and/or preterm birth, health problems due to malnutrition and lack of water, and health problems due to crowding," ÒTropical Acclimatization,Ó but J. Elbert Cutler, and obviously, ÒWorld Population,Ó by Warren D. Smith. There were a few articles, such as ÒThe U.S. Birthrate,Ó by June Sklar; Beth Berkov; Campbell Gibson, which chose to focus specifically on the factors of birthrates in only the United States, much like we intend to do with our own study.
We can see from our research that our study may, in fact, be one of a kind, but have decided not to let this discourage us. After all, we cannot really discover something that someone else has already found.

Methods:
ÒWho Procreates WhereÓ is a study with many variables. Our group wishes to focus and emphasize the significance of climate on the birthrates in the U.S. To do this we will use data from the 2000 US Census at www.census.gov and facts about specific states in the year 2000 from www.state.gov. The data on these sites should be significant to conduct our study.
The cities we will be using all have a population between 250,000 and 500,000, so that will not be a variable in out study. Also, the study will use a fixed age group, 23-28 years old. Other factors that we identified are: altitude, month, average temperature, number of light days, and number of dark days, percentage of professional women, and percentage of women on birth control, ethnicity, education, and income.
Using the fixed population we have found twenty-five cities in different states to study. Three group members will research six cities each and one group members will research seven cities. Using a data sheet that has been developed, the group will gather the information on all 26 cities in similar ways.
The cities being studied are: Montgomery, AL, Salinas, CA, Bridgeport, CT, Tallahassee, FL, Columbus, GA, Des Moines, IA, Rockford, IL, South Bend, IN, Lafayette, LA, Lowell, MA, Flint, MI, Springfield, MO, Jackson, MS, Fayetteville, NC, Lincoln, NE, Trenton, NJ, Reno, NV, Dutchess County, NY, Salem, OR, Reading, PA, Chattanooga, TN, Corpus Cristi, TX, Spokane, WA, Madison, WI, and Charleston, WV.
The data will be collected over a six week period and continuously analyzed. The manner the data will be analyzed is dependent upon how easily attainable all the data is. Essentially, the group will just be searching for correlations in climate that occur often enough (over 50% of the time at least) to be considered significant. Also, the demographic variables must be analyzed to see if the reoccurring patterns are more significant to the point that climate canÕt be considered.

Schedule for Weeks 7-16:
Week 7: The first week will be dedicated exclusively to developing and editing the proposal. Any last touches or considerations that need to be taken should be.
Weeks 8-13: Every week each group member should be filling out one data sheet on a city. (The one person with 7 cities will have to do two cities in one of these weeks.) During the course of the week, the group will meet to discuss progress and problems with their city. Anything that needs to be done as a group will be done at these weekly meetings. Also, these meetings will review the data to see any existing correlations and reoccurring birthrate patterns. Each group member will have a hard copy of their cityÕs data sheet to add to a folder that can be referred to in emergencies.
Weeks 14-16: This will be the time the group will meet more frequently, if necessary, to polish the project. This time will be used to put the whole project together. The formal lab write up will be done. This involves revised introductions and methods. Also, this will include all the data sheets, the results, and the conclusions.

Results:
The data that we are going to collect on our 25 cities over the next six weeks is going to be categorized into genres such as: altitude, climate, month, average temperature, number of light and dark days, percentage of professional women, and percentage of women on birth control, ethnicity, education, and income. Once we have acquired all the numbers needed for each specific category, we are then going to try and determine which has had the greatest affect on birthrate. We will then take our data and run a t-test to see if our hypothesis is correct. While administering our data to the t-test, we will also be putting our information into chart and graph form.

Conclusion:
ÒWho Procreates WhereÓ was a study to determine what affects birthrate. As of now a conclusion cannot be found seeing as we have not yet collected the data. We have come up with questions and observations that we hope will help us in our lab. A question that has been brought up among us is Òhow do we compensate for things like contraceptive use? For instance, if birth control is easier to obtain and more commonly used because of different programs supporting its use from city to city? Is there a way we can eliminate this as a factor? From the articles I've been looking at, I'm guessing that not many people are considering the climate a factor in birthrate, unless it's a serious weather problem, like drastic temperature change.Ó
A very astute observation that has been made by all us inside the group as well observers from the outside is, how is it that with all the variables that are going to be tested how we are going to pinpoint the actual affect something has on birthrate.
Also, our data sheet and "Our Day" plans can be found with the hard copy of the proposal.

Works Cited

Althaus, F. "U.S. Birthrate Decreased in 1991, but Nonmarital Fertility
Continued to Rise." Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 26, No. 1. (Jan. - Feb., 1994), pp. 43-44. Stable URL:
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Brown, B. "U.S. Births Rise for First Time in Eight Years; Births to Teenagers Still Falling." Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 5. (Sep. - Oct., 2000), pp.263-264. Stable URL:
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Bachrach. "Understanding U.S. Fertility: Continuity and Change in the National Survey of Family Growth, 1988-1995." Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 28, No. 1. (Jan. - Feb., 1996), pp. 4-12.
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Cho, Lee-Jay "Income and Differentials in Current Fertility." Demography, Vol.5, No. 1. (1968), pp. 198-211. Stable URL:
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Cutler, J. Elbert "Tropical Acclimatization." American Anthropologist, New Series, Vol.4, No. 3. (Jul. - Sep., 1902), pp. 421-440. Stable URL:
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Cutright, Phillips. "The Ingredients of Recent Fertility Decline in Developing Countries. "International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4. (Dec., 1983), pp.101-109. Stable URL:
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Gibson, Campbell. "The U.S. Fertility Decline, 1961-1975: The Contribution of Changes in Marital Status and Marital Fertility." Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 8, No. 5. (Sep. - Oct., 1976), pp. 249-252. Stable URL:
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Hollander, D. "Number of U.S. Births Climbed Again in 1990, Matching 1962 Level."Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 25, No. 5. (Sep. - Oct., 1993), pp. 236-237.Stable URL:
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Longstreth, Janice. "Public Health Consequences of Global Climate Change in the United States-- Some Regions May Suffer Disproportionately." http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/topic/global/longstreth-full.html#back

Mahler K. "US Birthrates Continued to Fall in 1993 Including Rates Among Adolescents." 1996. The Alan Guttmacher Institute.
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@muohio.edu/018dd5533b0050e5ee56&config=jstor

"Mexico's Experience Shows That Economic and Social Development Do Not
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"More U.S. Women are Deferring First Birth Till Their Mid- or Late 30s." Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1. (Jan. - Feb., 1985), pp. 41-42. Stable URL:
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%3AMUWADF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-G Mosher, William D. and Christine A.

"Recent U.S. Fertility Patterns Continue: Birthrates Climb Among Older Women, Childlessness Rises." Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 20, No. 1. (Jan. -Feb., 1988), pp. 44-45. Stable URL:
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Remez, L. "Half of Nicaraguan Women Use Contraceptives, Yet Birthrates Remain High." International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 20, No. 3. (Sep.,1994), pp. 116-117. Stable URL:
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Rind, P. "Among Women Over 30, Rate of First Births Rose Strongly with
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Sklar, June and Beth Berkov and Campbell Gibson. "The U.S. Birthrate." Science, New Series, Vol. 197, No. 4299. (Jul. 8, 1977), p. 108+110. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0036-8075%2819770708%293%3A197%3A4299%
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Smith, Warren D. "World Population." The Scientific Monthly, Vol. 40, No. 1.(Jan.,1935), pp. 33-43.Stable URL:
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Thompson, Richard W. and Michael C. Robbins. "Seasonal Variation in Conception in Rural Uganda and Mexico." American Anthropologist, New Series, Vol. 75, No.3. (Jun., 1973), pp. 676-686. Stable URL:
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Wulf, Deirdre. "Low Fertility in Europe: A Report from the 1981 IUSSP Meeting" Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 14, No. 5. (Sep. - Oct., 1982), pp. 264-270.
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C264%3ALFIEAR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O

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